Mon 30 November 2009 | 06:34 GMT Text size:

Zardusht Alizade

News.Az interviews political scientist Zardusht Alizade.

What do you expect from the Athens meeting of the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia?

I don't expect anything. The positions of Azerbaijan and Armenia are too different today to expect a breakthrough in the negotiation process. In these conditions much depends on the position of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs. If they increase the pressure on Armenia, referring to its unconstructive position, a fair resolution of the Karabakh conflict may be possible. Armenia really thinks that it defeated Azerbaijan although this is not true.
 
Can we expect the OSCE Minsk Group to put enough pressure on Armenia? 

This is a difficult question, as the United States, which co-chairs the Minsk Group, is stuck in Afghanistan and Iraq and they need to settle these problems as soon as possible. Another co-chair, Russia, also has a great many problems, including domestic ones: the economy has collapsed, science and research have collapsed, there is public apathy and a very dangerous situation in the Caucasus. If Russia does not change its attitude to the situation, review its foreign policy or concentrate on settling its worsening domestic problems, all of this may deteriorate further and events may take an undesirable turn. Anyway, the existing problems do not allow Russia to concentrate fully on the settlement of the problems facing the OSCE Minsk Group.

Meanwhile, the coordinator of the Armenian National Congress, Levon Zurabyan, said recently that a framework agreement on Karabakh has already been coordinated. What do you think of this?

Yes, I have heard this opinion, but actually that there is no agreement on the issue inside the Armenian elite which is not ready to make concessions on a fair settlement of the Karabakh conflict. Azerbaijan has already made a compromise. And this is that our country is ready to help Armenia get out of the deadlock in which it is mired because of its territorial claims on a neighbouring state.

Considering this, can we expect a breakthrough in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict during Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan’s visit to the United States? He is to meet Barack Obama on 7 December.

Certainly, Armenia had some hopes that they will separate the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement from the resolution of the Karabakh conflict. But it seems that the Turkish government managed to demonstrate its position clearly and dismiss all these hopes. The only thing left is to attain a final reconciliation of the positions of the superpowers on the resolution of the Karabakh conflict. This will probably occur during Erdogan’s visit to the United States. If so, by the end of the year the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia may sign a peaceful agreement on the resolution of the conflict.

Akper Hasanov
News.Az