Arye Gut: "Armenian occupation and "democracy": are they compatible?"

Mon 30 Jul 2018 05:01 GMT | 09:01 Local Time

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Israel-based The Jerusalem Post has published an article by political analyst Arye Gut headlined "Armenian occupation and "democracy": are they compatible?"

In his article Arye Gut says:

"After the fall of the corrupt and criminal regime of Serzh Sargsyan, it seemed that there will be a breakthrough in the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations and the parties will agree on peace for the countries and peoples. However, this was only an illusion. Being in occupied Khankendi, new Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan stated that Nagorno Karabakh (a region of Azerbaijan which is occupied by Armenia) should take a direct part in the negotiations on the settlement of the conflict since Yerevan will speak only on behalf of Armenia. In addition, in Pashinyan's opinion, while Azerbaijan uses aggressive rhetoric and speaks about the seizure of the territories of Armenia, it is pointless to discuss mutual concessions.

In recent days, the Armenian propaganda has been making enormous efforts to put out a wave of fear of a possible war with Azerbaijan. This war, thanks to the irresponsible statements of the new Armenian authorities, has really ceased to be a ghost and has taken on real shape. Pashinyan made it clear that he would not continue negotiations on a peaceful settlement of the conflict. He hopes for his alleged "democratic image" and expects to use it to pressure the West from Baku. Such stupid hopes and frivolous calculations indicate to unprofessionalism, the lack of strategic thinking and the complete unfitness of Premier Pashinyan in big politics, as well as the fact that the war turns into the only way to achieve justice for Azerbaijan.

Populism, which has been adopted by the government of Nikol Pashinyan for armament, Azerbaijani side to expect the Armenian side to provoke military actions. In order to keep the "revolutionary" tone in society, the street people may well resort to military provocation. In conditions when the incompetence of the new government, the chaotic nature of its decisions, uncertain, erroneous first steps and its misunderstanding of the real situation in the fragile South Caucasus region are becoming more noticeable, a small victorious operation, or at least an occasion to fantasize about Pashinyan and his team need like air, especially in the light of the resonance from the military parade in Baku and the large-scale military exercises in Azerbaijan.

Especially the last statements from Russia are losing official Yerevan. They remembered with nostalgia that old days when the sluggish negotiation process supported a comfortable temperature for the invaders around the conflict, and it seemed that this would always be so. The April battles in Karabakh on 2016 have significantly changed the status quo in favor of Azerbaijan, and immediately attracted the attention of world actors - the United States, Russia, the EU countries, which unanimously urged the parties to solve the problem by peace.

Official Baku has repeatedly stated and warned Armenia that it will never agree with the existing status quo. In response to the military provocations of Armenia and in order to prevent diversion and ensure the security of its citizens, the Azerbaijani army carried out a crushing military blow to the Armenian armed forces in early April 2016 and forced them to withdraw. Today, Azerbaijan is the country with the strongest and most powerful army in the South Caucasus, which has responded to the provocation from Armenia and demonstrated the strength and power of its army.

Delusional statements by the military and political leadership of the Republic of Armenia and representatives of the puppet separatist regime in Nagorno-Karabakh prove that they are seriously worried, in fear, hysteria, and panic. The Azerbaijani army is ready for any development of events on the front line. Azerbaijan armed forces and the most powerful weapons systems capable of crushing power are capable of destroying all important military targets and strategic communications of Armenia in a short time. In order to achieve a political solution to the conflict, the occupation must be stopped first and the status quo changed. If Armenia is interested in resolving the conflict, which is important for the development of Armenia itself, it must stop the occupation, follow, and respect the resolutions of the resolutions of the UN Security Council.

The majority of the Armenian population do not live, they just exist. However, for some reasons they compare themselves to the French and Dutch and not to residents of Eritrea or Somalia. It seems that some kind of economic growth is starting now, but it should take at least 10 years to feel it. The population is dissatisfied with authorities, and no one directs their protest. 

Do they in Armenia understand that the collapse of the economy and the mass outflow of the population are only consequences and not the cause of the troubles? Armenia needs to fight not only consequences but also the underlying causes of problems. Armenia today is like a sick person. This is equivalent to a doctor treating the consequences of the disease, and not the cause. Moreover, the reason lies in Armenian aggressive foreign policy and territorial claims to almost all neighboring states (excluding fundamentalist Iran, with which Armenia has very close, strategic and friendly relations) and in the unsettled Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. After all, these factors led to the economic isolation of Armenia in the region: today the borders of Armenia are closed not only with Azerbaijan but also with such a large market as Turkey that supports Azerbaijan's position in its conflict with Armenia.

The latest statements of Nikola Pashinyan and his political behavior is the bluff of the Armenian separatists as their goal is to justify their own aggression and occupation against Azerbaijan. It is obvious that the current leadership of Armenia is striving to declare itself as a supporter of "democracy" and hiding behind "democracy" to maintain the status quo that was established during the truce or even worse, to recognize the separatist puppet regime in Nagorno-Karabakh. Then the question automatically arises: "Can a democratic state be an advocate of occupation?

However, recent events in the region once again proved that official Baku will never agree with the existing status quo in the region and that Armenia should realize that Azerbaijan's patience has limits. There is a red line and it is impossible to go back once you cross it. According to international law, Baku has the right to not only defend itself but also to liberate the Azerbaijani territories occupied by Armenia."

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