What are your impressions of the US diplomatic documents posted on WikiLeaks?
It is hard to believe that the information collected and published on WikiLeaks has been gathered anonymously, as the website owners claim, since the collection of this information from almost all countries of the world, as well as the unsanctioned penetration of one of the most protected sources in the United States, does not look like a casual accident.
There has been talk about this website for the past few months and about the presence of a huge amount of information there and its release was trailed well in advance. The United States' tolerance of this information is, therefore, suspicious. In addition, analysis of the material published on WikiLeaks shows that while the United States seems to keep to the sidelines of these scandals, it then acts as a conciliator or peacekeeper.
Cooperation has been seen in interstate relations for many years; there was a bipolar world, with the NATO and Warsaw Pact military and political blocs. And today, in the information era, we can see frequent changes in interests and the emergence of new forms of strategic partnership. In other words, the speed of both centrifugal and centripetal processes has increased.
All the same, I would like to note it is natural for over 270 diplomatic missions to send material to the Department of State. This is their job. But the cause of discord between states and state leaders as a result of these documents is designed to frustrate the process of rapprochement between states.
How will the publication of the US diplomatic cables on WikiLeaks influence international politics?
A very powerful state stands behind the publications on WikiLeaks and sends this information to specific recipients. The goal of the distributors becomes clear if we view those addresses.
At first sight, one has the impression that the publication of this material is to some extent blackmail of different countries and their leaders. There is also the impression that this is a message that the United States has enough information about these states which can be used as a means of pressure when necessary.
Trends towards rapprochement of states at the regional level have recently intensified and integration processes in regional organizations and regional groupings are faster. Meanwhile, the publications on WikiLeaks, in fact, are aimed at averting attempts at reconciliation of regional countries and at creating enmity between regional states, united around single interests, in order to introduce significant changes to their foreign policy.
The publications on WikiLeaks also target the recent trend towards rapprochement in the Turkic world, the balanced policy of Azerbaijan, and the frustration of Azerbaijan’s good relations with other countries. If we look at the WikiLeaks publications, we can see that the blows are targeted at interstate relations where progress is being made. We can see attacks on the Turkic world, on the Muslim world, on the process of rapprochement of states in the Eurasian area. This trend is the main priority in their "divide and rule" foreign policy. Today with the publication of documents in WikiLeaks, we can see a new model of this "divide and rule" principle.
Can the US government's reaction to the developments be considered satisfactory?
How can such a strong state as the United States be that indifferent to the protection of its database? This is a new scenario for influencing international politics and more scenarios may follow.
American politicians are not trying to show that the published documents are untrue and they acknowledge that these are their documents.
All the same, we should not forget that the United States has interests throughout the world. The days when other countries saw the superpowers as an elder brother, an older friend are long gone; today every state is seeking to take its own place in the world arena, trying to further strengthen its independence.
What can countries do that have suffered as a result of the WikiLeaks disclosures?
Countries should react calmly to the WikiLeaks disclosures in order to preserve the trends towards rapprochement. That is, the countries should show their determination to resist any attempts to create a trend towards hostility. In other words, states should realize that they do not have to bow before the powers that be and should instead raise their level of resistance.
As for Azerbaijan, Turkey and Iran, these countries should assess the existing realities objectively.
How should Azerbaijan act in this situation?
Every country performs in the international arena with respect to its national interests. Politics does not have the concept of permanent friends or enemies. Therefore, Azerbaijan will conduct its policy as usual with respect to its national interests. Aware of this step of the United States, aimed at sowing discord between countries, we will be cautious and continue our policy.
The publications in WikiLeaks will have no influence on Azerbaijani-Turkish relations since Turkey and Azerbaijan have already spoken on this issue and said these publications are of no importance to them. No powers today are able to cause a split in the Turkic world.
The Azerbaijani president is conducting a balanced policy. Today we are able to maintain the golden mean in foreign policy in bilateral and multilateral negotiations and relations in both the South Caucasus and the world. Our relations with the United States will proceed normally.
Can changes in international politics be predicted as a result of the WikiLeaks disclosures?
I believe this scenario will fail. However, the world will expect new scenarios of this kind from the US side since the trend for states to strengthen their independence and distance themselves from the superpowers is very strong today. The challenges and crises of the second decade of the 21st century can already be seen and this is the crisis of the superpowers. There used to be different forms of occupation of one state by another. Countries were occupied or made dependent on the superpowers by means of arms. Now there is no need for this, as profound changes can be made in people’s consciousness through information.