Moment comes when Baku can return its territories bloodlessly: Russian expert

Wed 03 Oct 2018 14:10 GMT | 18:10 Local Time

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Armenia is shaking again, and it looks like the country is on the eve of a civil war, as the Russian analysts have previously warned, the well-known Russian expert and TV presenter Yevgeny Mikhailov expressed his opinion while commenting on recent events taking place in Armenia.

As it became known from the Armenian media, yesterday, after the adoption by the parliament of a law preventing the dissolution of the National Assembly (parliament), the Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan brought people to the streets and made a statement at a spontaneous rally about the dismissal of ministers from the Prosperous Armenia (PAP) and Dashnaktsutyun parties, and also said he will resign after the orders about dismissals de jure come into force.

The Russian analyst believes that having come to power on absolutely populist slogans, Nikol Pashinyan turned out to be completely unable to control the situation, Trend reports.

“He declares that he is supported by the people, but the very people will throw him. It is clear that those who sit in parliament and the ministers who have been nominally dismissed will not surrender their positions. They have their own part of the people, who do not like what Pashinyan declares and translates into reality. Again, the struggle against the Dashnak party, the main nationalistically-minded representatives of the Armenian establishment, is currently unpromising, and its representatives together with supporters from other parties, including the Republican Party, will give a powerful rebuff," Mikhailov said.

He noted that the Armenian Prime Minister is reeling from side to side, and it is obvious that the current decision to re-elect parliament and dismiss ministers can speak, first of all, of Pashinyan’s attempt to strengthen his own power.

“One day he voices threats towards Azerbaijan, another day he softens the position, but those who represent nationalists in parliament show displeasure. He hopes that the people will elect him again after the election of the new parliament, and therefore he confidently declares that immediately after the dismissal of several ministers he will resign. Of course, this is nothing more than a political maneuver," Mikhailov said.

Mikhailov believes the velvet revolutions always devour their heroes, and either Armenia will take the path of development in case of stabilization of the situation with the help of external mediators, or a civil war may occur in the country.

"I can admit the thought that Pashinyan may turn for support on certain conditions to Azerbaijan, who is quietly watching and not using the situation to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. In fact, the situation in Yerevan is very critical. It is worth remembering Putin’s deferred visit to Armenia, and his very short conversation with Pashinyan at the Dushanbe summit. I think this is not an accident. Russia does not interfere in the events in Yerevan, but it is clear that analysts in the Kremlin have supposed the current development of domestic political conflict in Armenia and decided to hold off official visits and political conclusions," the expert said.

Summing up what has been said, he confidently assumes that in the near future it will become clear whether Armenia retains political stability and the ability to talk with external players, or completely loses its statehood, while retaining some kind of semblance of a unitary state consisting of the territories which in fact are governed by local "political princes".

The Russian political analyst believes, in such a situation, Baku will be able to return the territories of Karabakh, belonging to Azerbaijan, almost bloodlessly.

The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. As a result of the ensuing war, in 1992 Armenian armed forces occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts.

The 1994 ceasefire agreement was followed by peace negotiations. Armenia has not yet implemented four UN Security Council resolutions on withdrawal of its armed forces from the Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding districts.




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