"Armenian surprise" for the leadership of Georgia: What plans does Nikol Pashinyan's "team" have for Tbilisi?

Mon 04 June 2018 17:15 GMT | 21:15 Local Time

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News.Az reprints fron minval.az an article headlined "Armenian surprise" for the leadership of Georgia: What plans does Nikol Pashinyan's "team" have for Tbilisi?" by political analyst Nurani.

A few days ago, Azerbaijan marked the 100th anniversary of the proclamation of an independent of Azerbaijan Democratic Republic - the first democratic republic in the entire Muslim East with a multi-national and multi-party parliament, where women, decades earlier than in France or Italy, had equal rights with men to elect and be elected, and all citizens regardless of nationality and religion were equal before the law (in the United States, for example, racial segregation was abolished only in the sixties of the twentieth century). In the same days, the centennial anniversaries of their states that appeared on the world map in 1918 were marked by other countries of the South Caucasus. Georgia beautifully and solemnly marked its anniversary. But in Armenia they clearly do not know what to do with this date. Its impossible to ignore, neighbors are uncomfortable, and in general it will be difficult to prove that Armenia is a country, and not a separate garrison of the Southern Military District of Russia. The "grand patron" in the face of Russia may be offended. As a result, the jubilee of its "first republic" in Armenia was tried to be pushed into the shadow of the Sardarapat battle, where, according to the official version, the Armenian forces defeated the Ottoman army with Russian support. And they even invited Russian soldiers to the festivities from the 102nd base in Gyumri. However, although they prefer not to remember this either in Yerevan or Moscow today, the invasion of the XI Red Army into the South Caucasus allowed Armenia to remain on the world map, albeit in the status of a union republic, and expand its territory - at the expense of Zangezur and eastern shore of Lake Goycha, which became "Sevan".

There is much more dangerous episode in Armenia's history. As soon as it emerged on the world map, and even there, where the Armenian statehood did not exist - on the lands of the Azerbaijani Erivan Khanate, independent Armenia not only launched a war with Azerbaijan for Zangezur and Karabakh, but also declared war on neighboring Georgia, making claims on Akhalkalaki and part of Borchalinsky county. And most importantly, now this digression into history receives a new, much more urgent and dangerous reading.

Let's remind: Nikol Pashinyan decided not to go to Tbilisi to celebrate the 100th anniversary of Georgia's independence. Nikol Vovaevich went to Georgia a few days later. Of course, during the visit, it was said enough words about friendship, cooperation, etc. Journalists and experts in every possible way pressed upon the imaginary "democracy" of Armenia after the victory of the "Pashinyan revolution", talked about a "new era" in the relations between Armenia and Georgia, etc. But…

Just before Nikol Vovaevich went on a visit to Georgia, we recall that the Syrian authorities announced the recognition of the independence of Russia's occupied regions of Georgia - South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which caused more than understandable indignation in Tbilisi. In response, the Georgian authorities announced the severance of diplomatic relations with the regime of Bashar Assad. Finally, in Tbilisi, Washington, and many other capitals, they directly pointed to the distinct "Russian order" of this decision.

But here's the thing. The well-known Russian journalist Maxim Shevchenko on the air of the "Special Opinion" program on the radio station Ekho Moskvy also expressed the opinion: "Why did President Bashar Assad need to suddenly break off relations with Tbilisi?" Clearly, this could only be done if someone from Moscow insisted. " And then he reminded that this, according to his quite fair assessment, the "anti-Georgian" step was taken "against the backdrop of very positive negotiations led by Karasin and Abashidze, with a Georgian representative in Europe, in my opinion, on Russian-Georgian relations. That is, we have a rapprochement with Georgia. We have seen with Georgia the removal of many conflict, problematic situations: the exchange of some buildings, property. In general, everything was very positive. Suddenly, on this background, a step is taken, which Georgia will obviously perceive as another Russian anti-Georgian demarche. What does it say? Is Russia constantly stupidly and primitively wanting to break with Georgia, trample on Georgia?"

Shevchenko is sure: the whole point is that "there are certain lobbying forces that are pushing Russia towards this anti-Georgian policy, absurd, in my opinion." Then came the address statement: "Armenian lobby" played against Georgia in the Russian Foreign Ministry. This lobby, Shevchenko is sure, "has been operating since the 1990s and which is very strong, as in the Russian political power." And now, when, in his opinion, "in Armenia, despite all the statements in love for Russia, forces that are more controlled from Washington than from Moscow, came to power" besides, Karapetyan and Abrahamyan, and Vardanyan - those Armenian lobbyists who told that they completely control the situation in Armenia, some lost their status, in order  to cover up the sluggish coup in Armenia, which will lead us to a rupture, possibly this flimsy channel between Russia and Iran, a strategically important Russia, the attention is on Georgia. This demarche is of purely political significance. Georgia, of course, will now respond with anti-Russian sentiments, of course. And this, of course, distracts attention from the Armenian theme, and Georgians again become the most guilty and the worst in Russia. I think it just goes against the fundamental interests of Russia, because it is the Orthodox Georgia that is predominantly - there are Muslims in Georgia, which is also, as they say, not a problem for us - it was always Russia's main ally. Who makes Georgia the enemy of Russia in the Caucasus? Who constantly pushes Georgia into the embrace of NATO, into the arms of the United States? Who pushes this version, that we have the only stronghold in the Caucasus - Armenia?" Shevchenko also said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is among lobbysts.

Nikol Vovaevich included the visit of the Armenian-populated region of this country - Javakheti in the program of his visit to Georgia. No, of course, he did not call for "miatsum", but the very fact of such a "point" in the program of the visit speaks volumes.

Five years ago, in the summer of 2013, another social protest occurred in Yerevan. Authorities have raised the fare on buses by 50% (from 100 to 150 drams).The opposition and the "protest vote" responded with creation of the initiative "We pay 100 drams!". On August 1, 2013, activists tried to set up a tent in front of the Yerevan City Hall. The police did not allow and even subjected one of the leaders of the action - Argishti Kiviryan - to the booking. A few hours later Nikol Pashinyan came to the police station where Kiviryan was taken, in those years he was a deputy of the Armenian parliament.

And now remember: the name of Argishti Kiviryan, the coordinator of the agency Armenia Today, in 2009 in Yerevan was on the carpet. Moreover, there was a heavy reason: on the night of April 30, 2009 in Yerevan, Kiviryan was first beaten, then shot in the head.

We will intentionally leave aside why the "Reporters without Borders", the OSC/ ODIHR did not react to this incident, and so on. Another thing is important. As immediately reminded in Yerevan, Argishti Kiviryan is the brother of the chief editor of the Transcaucasian edition of the Regnum news agency Armenika Kiviryan. And just before the dramatic incident with him, Igor Muradyan, one of the most ardent activists of the Armenian separatism in Nagorno-Karabakh in its early stages, has posted online an impressive longread headlined: "The position of Russia in the development of the political situation in Samtskhe-Javakheti and adventure of Argishti boy". As recalled Muradyan, Argishti Kivirian has worked in the newspaper "Voice of Armenia", and then - in the agency "SNARK" and then came to the attention of the notorious Modest Kolerov, then the main "Regnum" agency editor. We recall that in those years Kolerov not only led the agency "Regnum", where the provocative article published on a regular basis, aimed to "rock the situation" in Azerbaijan and Georgia. After being under the care of Kolerov, Kiviryan headed the analytical center "Caucasus" in Yerevan, created under the wing of "Regnum". According to Muradyan, "one of the areas of political and subversive activities of this office, referring to Regnum, are the unrecognized states of the South Caucasus and Transnistria, where M.Kolerov counted on to enforce his ideas of political management"...

One of the main tasks set in relation to the "Nagorno-Karabakh Republic" is to somehow guide the "Karabakh leadership" into "let truths" and lead to the idea of ​​joining the organization of unrecognized states of the CIS. "According to Muradyan, "in the "NKR" Kolerov's people could not make a single step, they were practically pointed to the threshold and advised to decide who they are and whom they represent. After receiving a lesson in the "NKR", the functionaries of "Regnum" decided to shift their efforts to a more promising direction, which they considered with Samha-Javakhetia, that is, Javakh and other Armenian-populated regions of Southern Georgia." Argishti Kiviryan was engaged in this, he said.

Of course, the idea of ​​inflating a fire in Javakheti may seem attractive to someone in Yerevan. This is the way to "rock the situation" in Georgia, and destabilize the situation near the hated Azerbaijani pipelines and railways ... But, firstly, the Georgian authorities could cope with such a threat. Moreover, before the eyes was an example not only of Karabakh, but also Adjaria, where the Georgian authorities very effectively "extinguished" the hotbed of local separatism, which Moscow was intensively fanning. Moreover, the Russian military base in Akhalkalaki was no longer there. And secondly, Armenia, judging by everything, imagine what could be the end of the country's attempts to inflame separatism in Javakheti. In this case, the border of Armenia with Georgia would be closed, which would mean a real catastrophe for it. But Yerevan couldn't put Kolerov in his place, so it preferred to act in other ways. And four years later he was visited by the current Prime Minister of Armenia in prison, whp includes in the program of his visit to Georgia a visit to Javakheti and receives from Russia as a gift the next arms tranches. Which, sorry for repeating the common truths, are not free.

And yes, one more detail, more precisely, a small retrospective. In 1993, at the height of the war in Abkhazia, when the Armenian National Movement headed by Levon Ter-Petrossian was in power in Armenia, and not the "Karabakhians", military operations against the Georgian army (with open military support of the Russian Federation, but this is another topic ) included two Armenian battalions - "Krunk" and "Bagramyan battalion". Which, first of all, "became famous" for their monstrous brutality against the peaceful Georgian population of this region. The style is unmistakably recognizable in Karabakh. And at least the information to think about how actively Moscow played against the "Armenian card". And will it try to play it now, when, as Pashinyan's political metamorphoses showed, Armenia does not even have a theoretical chance to oppose the dictates of the Kremlin?

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