The provocation recently committed by the drunken Armenian border guards on the border with Azerbaijan is, by all standards, not a mitigating, but an aggravating circumstance, Andrey Petrov, senior analyst of Vestnik Kavkaza news agency told News.az.

Petrov said the incident makes it possible to judge how weakly the Armenian government controls what is happening on the ground today. “This was clearly seen in Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan’s visit to Meghri and Gafan on Wednesday, where he had to fight his way through crowds of protesters with the help of the police.”

The analyst noted that the shelling by drunken border guards, under which Russian security forces also came, indicates existing problems with controllability in Armenia.

“Firstly, discipline is violated in the security forces if border guards allow themselves to drink alcohol while on duty, and secondly, since there was no one to stop them, the system of command and control over the armed forces has been destroyed,” he said.

According to the analyst, Armenian PM Pashinyan now has no plans to resume hostilities against Azerbaijan. “Pashinyan is busy with the election campaign, and within its framework, it is completely unprofitable for him to arrange any provocations.”

“After all, Pashinyan has the image of a commander-in-chief who has lost the war, and he should not remind the voters of this once again, fruitlessly aggression against Azerbaijan. On the contrary, he is trying to present himself now as a person of a new world, in which the Armenian people will live safely without war with their neighbors,” Petrov added.

Petrov said it should be assumed that the provocation was masterminded by Pashinyan’s opponents from the Karabakh clan – Serzh Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan.

“That's what they benefit from any clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani troops and security forces, since, on the one hand, they allow us to say that Pashinyan cannot guarantee peace, on the other hand, they help to maintain revanchist sentiments in society,” the analyst noted.

Petrov said the Russian special services are present in the region now to control the behavior of the Armenian side since it cannot provide any security due to the presence of revanchist influence in the military environment.

The analyst stressed that Armenia’s military provocations will lead to nothing but problems for Armenia itself. 

“Today Armenia is almost devoid of an army and military equipment, it simply has no one and nothing to fight with, and in such conditions, trying to shoot at Azerbaijani positions (also touching Russian posts) is something like a passive-aggressive method of suicide. Yerevan has no chances to undertake anything by threatening Azerbaijan. The supporters of revenge are allegedly asking Baku to deprive them of the remnants of the army and weapons,” he added.

News.Az