How Israel-Türkiye clash could start in Syria: Turkish expert
The sharp deterioration in relations between Türkiye and Israel is increasingly raising concerns about a possible military confrontation between the two regional powers. Syria remains the most vulnerable flashpoint, as the interests of Ankara and Tel Aviv intersect there, forces aligned with both sides operate on the ground, and the boundaries of their respective spheres of influence have yet to be clearly defined.
The Kurdish issue has emerged as an additional source of tension. Ankara fears that Israel could use its ties with Kurdish groups in Syria, Iraq and Iran as a means of exerting pressure on Türkiye, particularly against the backdrop of the ongoing settlement process involving the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK.
How realistic is the risk of a direct confrontation between Türkiye and Israel? What kind of incident could trigger an escalation, and could the Kurdish factor alter the regional balance of power? Turkish political expert Engin Özer addressed these questions in comments to News.Az.
Turkish political expert Engin Özer
According to the Turkish expert, localised incidents and hybrid confrontation in Syria remain the most likely scenario, while a full-scale war between the two countries is virtually out of the question.
“The Kurdish factor has long been used by the Israeli leadership, regardless of the party affiliation or ideological orientation of the political forces in power. However, under Israel’s current leadership, this policy has become significantly more overt. Previously, Mossad limited itself to sharing certain intelligence with the PKK, whereas today Israel is directly engaging with Kurdish groups in Syria. In addition, the Israeli side maintains close relations with Iraqi Kurdish groups. This cooperation is increasingly taking place at the official level. That is the main change,” the expert noted.
In Özer’s view, the likelihood of a confrontation between Israel and Türkiye on Syrian territory remains relatively high. A limited clash or local incident could occur in the near future. However, he believes such a confrontation would not escalate into a full-scale war.
“There are still territories and spheres of influence in Syria where neither Ankara nor Tel Aviv has been able to establish conclusively which side will play the leading role. This uncertainty is likely to persist, periodically creating the conditions for new crises and mutual provocations,” Özer said.
The expert also pointed out that a possible confrontation would most likely begin not with an official declaration of hostilities, but with a limited incident for which neither side would be willing to publicly accept responsibility.
“The conflict could most likely begin with a Turkish air defence system shooting down an Israeli drone over Syria, or vice versa. The side whose aircraft is destroyed would then probably strike the relevant air defence positions. At the same time, no one would officially declare that the Israeli or Turkish military was behind the attack,” he explained.
According to Özer, such a scenario would not amount to a full-scale interstate confrontation, but rather the use of hybrid methods. In particular, an attack by a Kurdish group against Turkish forces in northern Syria, or other similar provocations, cannot be ruled out.
“From a broader perspective, Türkiye and Israel will not go to war. The current tensions are, to a certain extent, politically advantageous to both Benjamin Netanyahu and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. I therefore rule out the possibility of the confrontation escalating into a major war or a full-scale hot conflict. However, small-scale provocations in Syria could occur at any moment,” the expert stressed.
Addressing Israel’s domestic political situation, Özer noted that Netanyahu is largely seeking to retain his position through hardline policies and ongoing military operations on several fronts.
“Today, Netanyahu is largely maintaining his hold on power through a hardline and provocative policy, as well as through military operations in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. It therefore cannot be completely ruled out that he could attempt to use worsening relations with Türkiye — and, under certain circumstances, with Russia — as another instrument for strengthening his domestic political position,” Özer said.
Speaking about the Kurdish issue, the expert emphasised that Israel views it not only in the context of Syria and the People’s Protection Units, or YPG, operating there, but also as a broader regional instrument.
“This is not only about Syria. Israel is also paying attention to Iranian Kurdish groups, including the Kurdistan Free Life Party, or PJAK, Kurdish political and security structures affiliated with the Barzani leadership in Iraq, and the PKK, which operates in Türkiye. The Israeli side may therefore attempt to use the Kurdish factor in pursuit of its own interests. I do not want to state this categorically, but such a risk does indeed exist,” he said.
According to the expert, the ongoing process aimed at resolving the Kurdish issue in Türkiye, including contacts related to PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, is of particular importance. Should this process fail, external forces could attempt to exploit a renewed escalation of tensions.
“A settlement process involving the PKK is currently under way in Türkiye, and possible steps concerning Abdullah Öcalan are also being discussed. If this process is not brought to a successful conclusion, Israel could intervene and attempt to provoke those sections of Türkiye’s Kurdish population that oppose Erdoğan,” Özer believes.
He added that the so-called peace process has effectively stalled, creating additional risks to Türkiye’s internal stability.
“Under such conditions, Israel could indeed attempt to reactivate the Kurdish factor inside Türkiye. The probability of such a scenario remains relatively high,” Engin Özer concluded.
By Nijat Babayev
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