Oil consumption to reach its peak after 2025, IEA forecasts
The global demand for oil will eventually start to decline in the long-term perspective under any scenario of de-carbonization of national economies, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its World Energy Outlook 2021, News.Az reports citing TASS.
The report offers three basic scenarios for the global energy sector, with various scopes of climate-related reforms. The moderate Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) envisages that all governments stick to conservative strategies and not all climate goals are achieved by 2050. It projects that global demand for oil would peak at 104 million barrels per day in 2030s and would start to gradually decline by 2050.
The Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) stipulates that all de-carbonization goals are eventually met, while oil demand peaks at only 97 million barrels per day and starts its gradual decline after 2025, until it reaches 77 million barrels per day by 2050. The Net Zero Emissions (NZE) envisages the global oil consumption to decline to 72 million barrels per day by as early as 2030, reaching 24 million barrels per day by 2050.
The latest scenario also envisages that by 2030, 60% of all cars sold worldwide are powered by electricity, and new cars with combustion engines are no longer sold after 2035. At the same time, the demand for oil in the petrochemical industry will grow, with 55% of all oil extracted worldwide used in petrochemical production by 2050, the IEA said.