WMO warns strong El Niño could make 2027 the hottest year ever
A powerful El Niño climate pattern is rapidly locking into place, threatening to spark extreme weather globally and potentially push 2027 to become the hottest year in recorded history, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on Tuesday.
The WMO announced there is now an 80% chance the phenomenon will fully develop between June and August, with a 90% probability it will persist through at least November. Characterized by a natural weakening of Pacific trade winds that allows warmer waters to pool in the eastern Pacific, El Niño inherently disrupts global temperatures and rainfall patterns. The WMO notes that several predictive models point toward a "strong" event this cycle, which is triggered when sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific spike at least 1.5°C (2.7°F) above historical averages, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
What makes this upcoming cycle uniquely dangerous is the modern global baseline. Human-induced greenhouse gas emissions have already warmed the planet by approximately 1.3°C since pre-industrial times. When a major El Niño stacks on top of this existing thermal baseline, the combination effectively supercharges climate volatility.
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"When we get an El Niño, because of the underlying climate change... these things become more intensified and they're more impactful."
— Piers Forster, Professor of Physical Climate Change at the University of Leeds
The real-world stakes of this climate convergence are immense, promising to intensify structural risks across multiple continents:
The Americas: Southern South America faces heightened flood risks. Experts note that a similar El Niño and climate change pairing in 2024 triggered catastrophic flooding in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, killing over 180 people and displacing 600,000. Conversely, Central America faces severe drying trends.
Africa & Australia: Southern Africa and Australia are bracing for intense droughts. In Africa, suppressed seasonal rainfall threatens to cripple regional agricultural yields for rain-fed farming and heavily limit hydropower generation.
Global Systems: Warmer Pacific waters provide a high-energy environment for the formation of much stronger tropical cyclones, while the atmospheric shifts will drive harsher heatwaves as far away as Europe.
The last major El Niño occurred in 2024, which currently stands as the warmest year on record. With the planet continuing to trap more ocean heat year-over-year, scientists warn that the incoming destruction will offer a stark "window into the future," previewing extreme baselines that could become the global norm within the next five years.
By Aysel Mammadzada
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