Are we heading towards World War III? Former Bush advisor on global conflicts - EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW

By Rolan Yusufov

In an exclusive interview with News.Az , Peter Douglas Feaver , a renowned American scholar in civil-military relations and political science, shared his insights on the most pressing issues in the Middle East and global geopolitics.

Feaver is a professor at Duke University, where he also founded the Program in American Grand Strategy and has served as the director of the Triangle Institute for Security Studies since 1999. He is widely respected for his contributions to U.S. foreign and defense policy, having served as a special advisor for strategic planning and institutional reform on the National Security Council during the George W. Bush administration. Earlier in his career, he served as director for defense policy and arms control on the National Security Council under the Clinton administration. His expertise in international security, particularly in the U.S.-Iran relations and global strategic planning, makes his insights particularly relevant today. In this interview, Feaver discusses the impact of Iran's actions in the Middle East, the potential consequences of the Ukraine war, and the looming risk of a Third World War.



- How could an Iranian attack on Israel affect U.S. strategy in the Middle East?

- Iran has already attacked Israel many times in many ways. The two most brazen attacks are the missile salvos in April and the one this week, both of which were thwarted with extraordinary effort by Israel, the U.S., and other regional partners. Iran’s attacks have had the paradoxical effect of driving the anti-Iran coalition closer together, which is surely not what Iran wants. However, the attacks also make the Middle East a more unstable environment, which Iran appears to want, but it is certainly against the U.S. strategy.



- Do you observe any signs of a possible division of Iran into North and South? Is such a scenario possible after the fall of the mullah regime?

- I do not think we have good visibility into the various divisions inside Iran. The regime is under considerable stress and has failed to meet the expectations of the Iranian people for a very long time now. History shows that regimes can fail slowly and then suddenly, so it is not impossible to imagine the current regime losing power. But what would come after is impossible to predict.

- Iran has threatened to strike strategic targets such as the oil infrastructure of Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia, and other countries in the event of an Israeli attack. How seriously should these threats be taken?

- Horizontal escalation, meaning hitting other targets in hopes they will increase pressure on Israel, may be a more viable strategy for Iran than vertical escalation, which involves bigger and bigger attacks on Israel itself. Israel is an increasingly hard target for Iran, whereas there are countless soft targets all over the region that Iran could easily hit. The problem for Iran is that hitting them does not directly hurt Israel and could backfire.

- How do you think the war in Ukraine will end?



- All wars end in some sort of negotiation, even if it is just a negotiated capitulation. I don’t think the war will end in outright capitulation by either side, though if neoisolationists in the United States take power, they could abandon Ukraine and leave it in a perilous position. More likely, the war will end in some kind of settlement. The question is who will concede more from their maximal war aims—Ukraine or Russia? It is in the interests of global stability that Russia makes the bigger concession, since they started this unlawful land grab and should not be rewarded for doing so."

- What are the risks that current global conflicts and tensions could escalate into a Third World War? What factors could either prevent or accelerate such an escalation?

- The risks of a major global conflagration are higher now than they have been in a long time. The key factor is the prudence of the leaders of states. Some states have good leaders, and some do not. Our prospects for avoiding war may hinge on whether there are enough prudent leaders and whether they can be vigorous enough in their efforts.

News.Az