Hüsamettin İnaç: From Venezuela to Iran, U.S. seeks to block China’s strategic moves – INTERVIEW
Today, the fate of states is being decided less through negotiations and more through balance sheets — through currencies, oil routes, and the debts of others. Venezuela, Iran, and China are no longer isolated cases; they are links in a single chain, in which sanctions increasingly serve as a prelude to military scenarios, while the so-called “nuclear threat” becomes a convenient cover for far more prosaic economic objectives.
Where, then, does the real “red line” lie — in centrifuges or in the currency used to sell oil? Is Iran’s internal crisis its own tragedy, or an element of someone else’s broader strategy? News.Az discusses these questions with Hüsamettin İnaç, a Turkish political scientist and professor at Dumlupınar University.
— If we assume that the Venezuelan case was not so much a “punishment” of the Maduro regime as a demonstration of a “red line” for countries willing to move energy resources and payments outside the dollar system, does this suggest that Iran is no longer merely under pressure but already in a “warning” phase, and that the main issue is not the nuclear program but who will buy Iranian oil tomorrow and in what currency?
— As you know, the recent attack and de facto occupation of Venezuela, as well as the forced detention of Maduro and his subsequent transfer to New York, send a very clear signal in the context of Iran.
We understand that the real reason for the intervention in Venezuela was economic. Above all, it stems from the fact that Venezuela possesses the world’s largest oil reserves and has been actively cooperating with China. Had oil processing and transportation been carried out jointly, the use of the U.S. dollar in global transactions could have fallen by around 20 percent. This point is crucial for understanding the Iranian issue, since Iran, too, has been under U.S. sanctions for many years.
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— If sanctions against Iran are not primarily about the nuclear deal but rather about containing China, has Tehran become a bargaining chip in the global game of great powers? And does the regime itself understand that its internal crisis has already been built into someone else’s geopolitical strategy?
— After the signing of the nuclear deal in 2015 under the Obama administration and its repeal by Donald Trump after he came to power in 2016, Iran found itself under intense sanctions pressure and was effectively excluded from the international economic system. One of the key reasons for this was Iran’s energy cooperation with China. In recent years, the U.S. has grown seriously concerned that China could surpass it not only economically but also militarily and technologically, thereby threatening America’s claims to global hegemony.
This is precisely why Washington now appears willing, starting with Venezuela and other Latin American countries, and extending to Iran, to resort to military strikes or direct intervention in order to block China’s strategic initiatives.
This is occurring against the backdrop of Iran’s weakening influence in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, as well as the significant erosion of Tehran’s position following the 12-day Israeli-Iranian standoff that began on June 12. Inside the country, clear signs of crisis have begun to surface. On the one hand, public trust in the existing regime has declined; on the other, economic difficulties, exacerbated by the events that began in September 2022 and reached a climax with the killing of Mahsa Amini, have translated into protest sentiments that call into question the very legitimacy of the government. It is impossible to say with certainty whether these protests will lead to the collapse of the regime, but economically the situation has long exceeded the limits of tolerance for a significant segment of Iranian society.
— In your view, where does the real “red line” lie?
— Israel is well aware of this vulnerability, and therefore a new wave of attacks that could further squeeze Iran appears entirely possible in the near future. In this context, the U.S.–Israel alliance is demonstrating a tough and principled stance aimed at denying Iran even the slightest room for maneuver. The growth of protest activity within the country, in turn, objectively strengthens the position of this coalition.
That is why, although it is neither my desire nor my hope, it seems likely that after possible interventions in Latin America, particularly in Cuba or Colombia, attention will ultimately shift to Iran. This could mark the beginning of a process in which Iran’s gas and oil resources come under U.S. control. It should be recalled that the U.S. is currently burdened with a national debt of roughly $40 trillion, and the Trump administration, in its efforts to cope with this challenge, has demonstrated a willingness to use force in regions rich in minerals, natural resources, and rare earth elements. In this sense, unfortunately, Iran may become a target of military pressure either within the current year or in the very near future.
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— Are public gestures of support for the protests by Israel’s far right becoming a “gift” for Tehran, allowing the authorities to portray public discontent as an external conspiracy and thereby temporarily strengthen regime stability? And how far can this consolidation go?
— Experience shows that Iranian society tends to consolidate in the face of external threats and foreign intervention. Even while rejecting many decisions and actions of the government, a substantial part of the population is willing to rally around the state in such circumstances, thereby prolonging the life of the current regime.
An additional factor working in Tehran’s favor is the fact that radical Israeli far-right figures such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich have recently expressed open support for the protests. This fosters a strong perception that the unrest is being inspired by the U.S. and Israel, which may ultimately strengthen rather than weaken the Iranian authorities, allowing them to preserve stability — at least for a limited period of time.
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