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External Threat
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Iran remains deeply unstable despite a decline in the mass protests that erupted in late 2025. The unrest has shifted toward localized flare-ups and forms of passive resistance, unfolding against a backdrop of hyperinflation and acute shortages. Analysts warn of potential internal power struggles and escalating tensions with the United States, with the risk of military confrontation reportedly high. Tehran views increasing U.S. activity in the South Caucasus as a form of strategic encirclement and is seeking firm security assurances from Armenia.25 Feb 2026-13:06
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