Caspian military drills excluding Russia and Iran
Editor's note: Russian military-political analyst, expert in the field of strategic security, specialist in the Middle East and Africa Vladimir Bekish. The article expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the view of News.Az.
The military operational-tactical drill "Unification" is set to take place in Kazakhstan in July. The participants include Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan—all members of the CSTO—as well as Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan. Notably, CSTO member Russia is not among the participants and has not been invited, at least not yet.
The composition of the participants is quite telling, especially given the specific circumstances. A segment of the drill will occur in the Caspian Sea, to which only Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan among the participants have access. The other participating countries are situated closer to Afghanistan and Pakistan, rather than the Caspian region. This setup raises questions, particularly in light of recent concerns voiced by Russia regarding the actions of some Tajik citizens and the potential implications for Russia’s future interactions with Tajikistan.
Another point of interest is that Russia, Turkmenistan, and Iran also border the Caspian Sea. If the drill aims to prepare for repelling threats in this area, such threats could realistically originate from Iran, as conflict with Turkmenistan seems unlikely. This raises the question of how effective any countermeasures could be in the Caspian Sea without Russian involvement.
Overall, the forthcoming drill and its participant list, combined with the geographical context, suggest a specific vision that these countries have for their future political landscape in the region and its surrounding areas. It appears that these countries are planning to rely solely on themselves and their emerging informal alliance, indicating a strategic distancing from Russia.
Various reasons could underlie this shift. These include perceptions that the political, economic, and military situations in and around Russia may prevent it from providing reliable support to its neighbors. Moreover, cooperation with Russia in regional conflicts might be viewed negatively by other countries, prompting these nations to distance themselves from Russia to avoid international complications.
Furthermore, we cannot dismiss the possibility that Russia might end up as a conflict participant that these countries will need to confront. While this scenario might seem far-fetched or provocative, current global dynamics and future prospects cannot be ignored, suggesting that this contingency is being considered by the countries involved in the drills.
Additionally, if countries that are geographically distant from the region—such as Britain, the United States, or Turkey—are invited as observers or advisers to the drills, it would send a clear message to Russia. It would indicate that envisioning a future without close ties to Russia is a likely scenario for these countries, and they are actively preparing for it.
The military operational-tactical drill "Unification" is set to take place in Kazakhstan in July. The participants include Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan—all members of the CSTO—as well as Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan. Notably, CSTO member Russia is not among the participants and has not been invited, at least not yet.
The composition of the participants is quite telling, especially given the specific circumstances. A segment of the drill will occur in the Caspian Sea, to which only Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan among the participants have access. The other participating countries are situated closer to Afghanistan and Pakistan, rather than the Caspian region. This setup raises questions, particularly in light of recent concerns voiced by Russia regarding the actions of some Tajik citizens and the potential implications for Russia’s future interactions with Tajikistan.
Another point of interest is that Russia, Turkmenistan, and Iran also border the Caspian Sea. If the drill aims to prepare for repelling threats in this area, such threats could realistically originate from Iran, as conflict with Turkmenistan seems unlikely. This raises the question of how effective any countermeasures could be in the Caspian Sea without Russian involvement.
Overall, the forthcoming drill and its participant list, combined with the geographical context, suggest a specific vision that these countries have for their future political landscape in the region and its surrounding areas. It appears that these countries are planning to rely solely on themselves and their emerging informal alliance, indicating a strategic distancing from Russia.
Various reasons could underlie this shift. These include perceptions that the political, economic, and military situations in and around Russia may prevent it from providing reliable support to its neighbors. Moreover, cooperation with Russia in regional conflicts might be viewed negatively by other countries, prompting these nations to distance themselves from Russia to avoid international complications.
Furthermore, we cannot dismiss the possibility that Russia might end up as a conflict participant that these countries will need to confront. While this scenario might seem far-fetched or provocative, current global dynamics and future prospects cannot be ignored, suggesting that this contingency is being considered by the countries involved in the drills.
Additionally, if countries that are geographically distant from the region—such as Britain, the United States, or Turkey—are invited as observers or advisers to the drills, it would send a clear message to Russia. It would indicate that envisioning a future without close ties to Russia is a likely scenario for these countries, and they are actively preparing for it.
(If you possess specialized knowledge and wish to contribute, please reach out to us at opinions@news.az).
Similar news
