China-US relations: Escalating tensions
Editor's note: Teymur Atayev is an Azerbaijani publicist, historian, political scientist, and host of the program "Aspects of Foreign Affairs" on the Azerbaijani CBC TV channel (broadcasts in Russian). The article expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the view of News.Az
Tensions between China and the United States have noticeably intensified, with both sides adopting increasingly combative rhetoric. Following the U.S. President's decision to impose new tariffs on China, Beijing responded through its Ministry of Commerce, accusing Washington of undermining World Trade Organization rules and the multilateral trading system with its unilateral actions. According to the Ministry, these tariffs will not solve the United States' own problems but will instead harm Sino-American economic and trade cooperation. Describing the tariffs as "unreasonable, unfounded, and harmful to others," the Chinese Ministry of Commerce called on Washington to immediately reverse its tariff policies.
Shortly after, China’s Foreign Ministry accused the United States of using the fentanyl issue as a pretext for reintroducing tariffs on Chinese goods. Beijing criticized the U.S. administration for blaming China instead of appreciating its efforts to help tackle the fentanyl crisis. The Foreign Ministry condemned this approach as a case of Washington "repaying good with evil," arguing that such tactics neither address America's domestic problems nor contribute to cooperation on drug control between the two nations. The Ministry emphasized that "the Chinese people have never been afraid of threats or blackmail," warning that any attempt to exert strong pressure on China would be a grave miscalculation. It added that "there are no winners in trade and tariff wars," stressing the importance of resisting unilateral actions and trade protectionism. However, if Washington harbors "hidden motives" and insists on trade, tariff, or any other form of conflict, China is prepared to "fight to the end."
Source: TRENDS Research & Advisory
Amidst this escalating rhetoric, the U.S. Department of Defense also made its stance clear. Pete Hegseth stated that "those who desire peace must prepare for war," underscoring the U.S. commitment to strengthening its armed forces. He explained that the U.S.'s assertive posture stems from living "in a dangerous world with powerful countries that embrace entirely different ideologies." Although Hegseth claimed that Washington "does not seek war with China," he stressed that the Pentagon's responsibility is to ensure that the U.S. is fully prepared.
Meanwhile, Beijing made headlines by announcing plans to increase its defense budget by 7.2% this year, raising it to over 230 billion euros. This decision follows a similar rise recorded in 2024, underscoring China's commitment to enhancing its military capabilities. With the world's second-largest defense budget after the United States, China’s growing military expenditure adds yet another layer of complexity to the already strained bilateral relations.
At the same time, China reacted sharply to U.S. accusations against 12 Chinese nationals for a series of cyberattacks. Beijing’s Foreign Ministry labeled the United States as the "world's number one hacking empire," further exacerbating tensions between the two powers.
Source: Politico.Eu
The Taiwan issue also remains a significant flashpoint. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated Washington's longstanding policy of opposing any "violent, coercive, or forced" changes to Taiwan's status. In response, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian reaffirmed that "there is only one China in the world, of which Taiwan is an inalienable part, and the government of the People’s Republic of China is the only legitimate government representing all of China." Lin warned that if Washington is not seeking to provoke a conflict, it must stop "crossing the line" on the Taiwan issue.
Analysts suggest that the escalating "trade-tariff" backdrop has prompted China to adopt significant measures on the domestic economic front. Reports indicate that Beijing has raised its annual grain production target to approximately 700 million tons and increased the budget for agricultural reserves, citing the need for "more reliable measures to safeguard food supplies amid deteriorating trade relations." In 2024, China imported over 155 million tons of grain and soybeans, primarily from the United States and Brazil. Accordingly, China has boosted its 2025 budget for grain reserves, vegetable oils, and other key commodities by more than 6% compared to the previous year.
Simultaneously, Beijing has introduced new support measures for its livestock and dairy industries. Speaking at a parliamentary session, Chinese Premier Li Qiang expressed confidence in the stable development of the national economy, projecting a growth rate of 5% in 2025, as initially planned. To sustain this momentum, China intends to pursue a "more targeted policy to stimulate economic activity," including maintaining a "moderately loose" monetary policy. This approach is based on Beijing's focus on "domestic demand as the main economic priority." According to the Ministry of Finance, China plans to issue more special local government bonds and "super-long special treasury bonds" this year, along with expanding transfer payments from the central government to local administrations.
Source: The Global Times
The facts outlined above clearly illustrate the escalating tensions between China and the United States. For now, this confrontation is primarily rhetorical, with both sides exchanging "politico-economic" barbs of limited impact—essentially a form of "testing the waters." However, the risk is that if these signals are not interpreted as intended, the situation could escalate beyond mere rhetoric into a far more dangerous confrontation. The combination of economic pressure, military posturing, and the heightened stakes surrounding issues like Taiwan and cybersecurity suggests that the current trajectory is fraught with peril. Analysts warn that a failure to manage these tensions could lead to a broader and more intense conflict, with significant implications not only for bilateral relations but also for the stability of the entire Asia-Pacific region and the global economy at large. The ongoing developments underscore the urgent need for diplomatic engagement and de-escalation to prevent the current friction from spiraling into an open confrontation that could reshape the geopolitical landscape for years to come.
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