How the Syrian conflict impacts Türkiye-Russia relations - EXPERT OPINIONS

Clashes continue in Syria between the Bashar al-Assad regime and the opposition military group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in rural areas of Aleppo province. The clashes, which began early on November 27, have resulted in HTS taking control of the village of Kafer Besme, along with the heights of Aqil, al-Raghib, Kuptan, and Dabbabat in the western Aleppo countryside. Amid the ongoing conflict, large numbers of civilians have been forced to flee their homes and seek refuge in the Idlib countryside.

Meanwhile, Russian jets bombed the village of Orem Al-Sugra in the western part of the province following the Assad regime’s loss of control over the area. Prior to this, Russian forces were engaged in fighting on the outskirts of Atarib.

Reports suggest that the Islamists have received support from the pro-Turkish opposition. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recently expressed his desire to establish ties with the Syrian government to promote peace in the region, including the creation of security zones. This raises questions: Could such a statement provoke certain forces to become more active in the region, potentially obstructing Ankara's initiatives with Syria? If the involvement of the pro-Turkish opposition in this confrontation is confirmed, how might this impact relations between Türkiye and Russia , considering Moscow's support for the Assad regime?

To explore these questions, News.az sought insights from political scientists in Russia and Türkiye.

Igor Korotchenko, Director General of the Caspian Institute for Strategic Studies, told News.az that the Turkish opposition is doing everything in its power to counter President Erdoğan’s efforts to normalize relations with Syria and resolve the conflict on terms acceptable to all parties.

“In this regard, it is clear that the Turkish opposition aims to create conditions under which President Erdoğan’s political legacy could be reviewed and, if possible, dismantled. Erdoğan, as a politician of global significance, has been pursuing a course that both protects Türkiye’s national interests and addresses the instability in neighboring Syria, which remains a critical issue for everyone involved,” Korotchenko explained.

He further elaborated that external influences cannot be ruled out: “Although Fethullah Gülen has passed away , his movement continues to thrive in the U.S., which might suggest that external financing is fueling the Turkish opposition. This support contributes not only to anti-Erdoğan policies within Türkiye but also complicates the situation in Syria.”

Regarding Türkiye-Russia relations, Korotchenko emphasized that they are currently shaped by the personal rapport between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. “ Moscow acknowledges Erdoğan’s position as distinct from that of his political opponents. Therefore, the actions of the pro-Turkish opposition in Syria are unlikely to strain official relations between Russia and Türkiye. Both leaders have shown an ability to reach consensus on critical issues.”


Turkish political analyst Engin Ozer also shared his perspective with News.Az. According to Ozer, the recent actions by HTS were carried out with security considerations in mind, given the volatile situation in Idlib.

“There are nearly 3 million people living in Idlib. Regime forces have recently escalated their bombardments and artillery strikes in the area, prompting the opposition to respond. Attacks have also been reported in Latakia and along the M4 highway toward Aleppo. While these events are indeed unfolding, they seem to be driven by security concerns and serve as a form of warning,” Ozer explained.

He noted that while Türkiye and Syria have taken steps toward normalizing relations, progress has been slow due to Syria’s insistence on the withdrawal of Turkish troops from the region—a condition Ankara currently finds unacceptable.

“These developments are also linked to the new U.S. administration’s approach to the region. HTS is actively involved, with support from the Free Syrian Army and the Syrian National Army. Their immediate goal appears to be gaining control over critical logistics routes, such as the M4 and M5 highways, which could later be used as leverage in negotiations,” Ozer added.

On the subject of Türkiye-Russia relations, Ozer pointed out the complexities arising from simultaneous tensions in Syria and Ukraine. “ The ceasefire in Idlib has been broken after four years , and Russian jets are now participating in bombardments. At the same time, Türkiye continues to provide arms to Ukraine, further straining relations. The situation could escalate if the opposition in Syria manages to retake Aleppo, triggering large-scale clashes. For now, the opposition seems focused on cutting off logistical lines around Aleppo.”

News.Az