Barclays sees rising regulatory risk for Google as antitrust case nears ruling
Regulatory risks for Alphabet’s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google are increasing as the U.S. Department of Justice’s search antitrust case nears a decision, with remedies potentially taking effect as soon as October, News.Az reports citing Reuters.
Barclays analysts following the closing arguments came away with mixed views.
“We listened to the entire day of closing arguments and there were certainly times where we felt a lot worse than we did prior, and other times where we felt better, in terms of GOOGL stock price impact,” analyst at Barclays said.
A decision is expected in late July or early August, and any measures could begin 60 days later.
Barclays flagged the potential cancellation of Google’s traffic acquisition costs and ad syndication deals as the biggest financial risks, estimating they could account for up to 20% of gross profit globally, or 10% if applied only to the U.S. market.
While a forced sale of Google’s Chrome browser still appears unlikely, Barclays said the odds have “increased” and called such a move a major blow to GOOGL but a significant win for any acquirer, citing names like OpenAI.
Barclays also pointed to uncertainty around how AI might change the search market, with the court appearing to consider “forward-looking” remedies rather than just targeting traditional search links.
It added that the judge’s tone suggested some of the DOJ’s proposed actions could be adopted, potentially ruling out softer options like non-exclusive revenue sharing via choice screens.
Google’s stock has so far shrugged off the case, but Barclays noted that remedy duration could last around five years, and some of the changes, such as contract cancellations, might be delayed to allow partners like Mozilla to adjust.
Similar news
