China’s export growth expected to slow in August as U.S. truce boost fades
China’s export growth likely cooled in August, with weaker U.S. demand offsetting the temporary boost from Beijing’s tariff truce with Washington, according to a Reuters poll.
Economists expect outbound shipments to have risen 5% year-on-year, down from July’s 7.2% surge. Imports are forecast to slow as well, rising just 3% compared with 4.1% the previous month, reflecting a sluggish property market, job insecurity, and weaker consumer demand. Trade data is due Monday, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
The slowdown comes as the U.S. maintains 30% tariffs on Chinese goods, while China keeps 10% duties on U.S. products under a 90-day truce extension agreed on Aug. 11. Analysts warn that if U.S. tariffs rise above 35%, Chinese exporters will face prohibitive costs.
Container shipments from China to the U.S. have already fallen sharply—down nearly 25% in late August compared with last year. While Chinese exporters are seeking buyers in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, none of these markets match U.S. demand, once worth over $400 billion annually.
China’s trade surplus is expected to edge up slightly to $99.2 billion in August. Analysts are watching to see if Beijing introduces new fiscal support in the fourth quarter to shore up domestic demand, though policymakers have so far been cautious with stimulus measures.
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