EIA cuts global oil demand growth forecasts for 2024-2025

The Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA) has lowered its forecasts for global demand growth for oil and liquid hydrocarbons (LH) due to retrospective adjustments, while the expectations for demand themselves have become higher, says the EIA in its monthly report , News.az reports.

Demand for oil

According to the EIA forecast, in 2024, global demand for oil and liquid hydrocarbons will grow by 0.94 million barrels per day, to 103.08 million barrels per day, in 2025 - by 1.52 million barrels per day, to 104.6 million barrels per day.

Compared with the previous report, the department significantly revised the data for 2022-2023 upwards, which led to higher demand estimates, while demand growth forecasts became lower.

Thus, the estimate of global demand for oil and liquid hydrocarbons in 2022 was increased by 210 thousand barrels per day, to 100.04 million barrels per day, in 2023 - by 340 thousand barrels per day, to 102.14 million barrels per day.

Due to the increase in base indicators, the demand growth forecast for 2024 has been reduced by 200 thousand barrels per day, and for 2025 - by 90 thousand barrels per day.

At the same time, the demand expectations themselves have become higher - by 140 thousand barrels per day in 2024 and 50 thousand barrels per day in 2025.

The EIA explains that the slowdown in global economic activity and the decline in fuel demand in China have reduced market expectations for the growth of global oil demand.

At the same time, the department still considers countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to be the driver of growth in global demand for oil and liquid hydrocarbons.

Offer

EIA increased its estimate of oil and liquid hydrocarbons supply on the world market in 2022-2023 (by 150 thousand barrels per day to 100.22 million barrels per day in 2022 and by 80 thousand barrels per day to 101.87 million barrels per day in 2023), which led to asymmetrical forecast adjustments.

In 2024, production is expected to increase by 310 thousand barrels per day, to 102.18 million barrels per day, in 2025 - by 2.42 million barrels per day, to 104.6 million barrels per day.

The forecast for supply growth in 2024 has been reduced by 260 thousand barrels per day, in 2025 it has been increased by 340 thousand barrels per day, for supply itself the forecast has been reduced by 180 thousand barrels per day in 2024 and increased by 160 thousand barrels per day in 2025.

News.Az