Tesla Q4 deliveries seen falling as incentives fade
Tesla is expected to report a drop in fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries, as the loss of U.S. tax credits and intensifying global competition weigh on demand despite the rollout of cheaper versions of its best-selling models.
Analysts forecast that Tesla delivered about 432,800 vehicles in the December quarter, down roughly 13% from a year earlier, according to a Visible Alpha poll. A separate analyst consensus compiled by Tesla points to an even steeper decline of around 15%. For the full year, deliveries are expected to fall nearly 8% to about 1.65 million vehicles, marking the company’s second consecutive annual decline, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
The weak finish would follow a volatile year for Tesla sales. Deliveries slumped sharply in the first half amid backlash over CEO Elon Musk’s political comments, before rebounding in the third quarter as buyers rushed to secure U.S. tax credits ahead of their September expiry. That boost now appears to have faded.
In October, Tesla introduced lower-cost “Standard” versions of the Model Y and Model 3, priced roughly $5,000 below previous base models. The move is aimed at defending volumes, particularly in Europe and Asia, where competition from Chinese automakers has intensified. However, analysts say the cheaper variants may not be enough to offset near-term pressure from rivals and reduced incentives.
Sales in North America and Europe are expected to account for most of the decline, according to Deutsche Bank analysts, even as Tesla faces growing competition from more affordable electric vehicles expected from legacy automakers such as Ford and General Motors over the next two years.
Despite the delivery slowdown, Tesla’s shares have risen more than 14% this year, supported by investor optimism around Musk’s push into robotaxis, humanoid robots and self-driving technology—areas seen as key to the company’s longer-term growth strategy.
Tesla is due to report its fourth-quarter and full-year production and delivery figures later this week, with markets watching closely for signs of stabilisation heading into 2026.
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