World Bank predicts Azerbaijan's GDP growth in 2026
The World Bank (WB) projects Azerbaijan’s GDP growth at 1.8% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027, according to the January edition of the WB’s Global Economic Prospects update. These forecasts remain unchanged from October’s estimates.
The bank expects Azerbaijan’s economy to expand by 1.9% in 2025, News.Az reports, citing local media.
"In the South Caucasus, growth is envisaged to slow to 3.3 percent in 2026 and 3.1 percent in 2027. In Azerbaijan, activity is expected to be constrained by weaker hydrocarbon output, lower global oil prices, and a tighter fiscal stance. In Armenia and Georgia, private consumption is anticipated to moderate as activity normalizes from a high base, while weaker remittances and lower export earnings are projected to weigh on current accounts," reads the update.
The Azerbaijani Ministry of Economy forecasts GDP growth of 2.9% in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027.
International rating agencies' estimates vary: S&P Global expects growth of 2% in 2026, Fitch Ratings - 2.5%, and Moody's - 2.5%.
The Asian Development Bank forecasts economic growth in Azerbaijan at 2% in 2026, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development - 2.5%, and ING Group - 2.8% in 2026 and 2% in 2027.
According to UN estimates, Azerbaijan's economic growth will be 2.7% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027.
In 2024, Azerbaijan's economy grew by 4.1%, and in January-November 2025 by 1.6%.
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