"The jihadists are actively preparing a new version of September 11th," warns the expert
Recently, the Kyrgyzstan Prosecutor's Office removed the Taliban movement from the list of terrorist organizations. Earlier, Kazakhstan made the same decision. The question arises: does this mean that the Taliban is moving toward political recognition, at least at the regional level? Political scientist Andrey Serenko, head of the Center for the Study of Afghan Politics, shared his thoughts on this matter in an interview with Oriental Express .
Andrey Serenko believes that the removal of the Taliban from the terrorist lists in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan does not equate to full recognition or a readiness to build normal intergovernmental relations. It is more of a symbolic step demonstrating openness to dialogue with the Taliban and its patrons — Qatar and Turkey. Both countries play key roles in supporting the Taliban in the region, and their influence on the decisions of Central Asian states is becoming increasingly evident.
The reasons behind such decisions are twofold : first, Central Asian countries hope that the Taliban can restrain the activities of radical jihadist groups based in Afghanistan, such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda. Second, the influence of countries like Qatar and Turkey pushes their Central Asian partners to establish relations with the Taliban.
Serenko points out that the Taliban's real capacity to control jihadists is very limited. The group "Islamic State — Khorasan Province" (ISIS-K) continues to rapidly increase its strength in Afghanistan, despite the Taliban's presence. Serenko highlights that while the Taliban can control certain groups, such as Jamaat Ansarullah, its relations with ISIS-K remain strained and are largely based on informal agreements.
Currently, ISIS-K has more than 25,000 fighters, and the group continues to attract supporters from around the world, including Russia and the Middle East. According to the expert, the most serious danger lies in the planning of a new major terrorist attack: "The jihadists are actively preparing a new version of September 11th," Serenko said. The leader of Afghan ISIS had previously stated that the group needed its own version of the September 11 attacks, with a massive number of casualties.
The Taliban is actively engaging with external players, including China, which hopes to suppress Uyghur Islamists. However, as Serenko points out, the Taliban's control in the country is highly conditional. Constant attacks on diplomatic missions of Russia and China in Kabul demonstrate the Taliban's inability to fully manage jihadist groups on their territory.
Serenko also emphasizes that while the Taliban seeks cooperation with China, its motives are primarily commercial. Taliban leaders aim for personal enrichment, while ordinary fighters often face a lack of basic resources, such as food.
In the long term, the threat to Central Asian countries remains high. According to Serenko, the Taliban continues to strengthen its forces, which could lead to the expansion of their influence beyond Afghanistan. Conflicts with neighboring countries, such as the dispute with Uzbekistan over the Amu Darya water resources, may escalate into more serious crises.
Thus, despite Central Asia's attempts to establish relations with the Taliban, the real threat from jihadist groups based in Afghanistan continues to grow, requiring active involvement from the international community to address this issue.
Andrey Serenko believes that the removal of the Taliban from the terrorist lists in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan does not equate to full recognition or a readiness to build normal intergovernmental relations. It is more of a symbolic step demonstrating openness to dialogue with the Taliban and its patrons — Qatar and Turkey. Both countries play key roles in supporting the Taliban in the region, and their influence on the decisions of Central Asian states is becoming increasingly evident.
The reasons behind such decisions are twofold : first, Central Asian countries hope that the Taliban can restrain the activities of radical jihadist groups based in Afghanistan, such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda. Second, the influence of countries like Qatar and Turkey pushes their Central Asian partners to establish relations with the Taliban.
Serenko points out that the Taliban's real capacity to control jihadists is very limited. The group "Islamic State — Khorasan Province" (ISIS-K) continues to rapidly increase its strength in Afghanistan, despite the Taliban's presence. Serenko highlights that while the Taliban can control certain groups, such as Jamaat Ansarullah, its relations with ISIS-K remain strained and are largely based on informal agreements.
Currently, ISIS-K has more than 25,000 fighters, and the group continues to attract supporters from around the world, including Russia and the Middle East. According to the expert, the most serious danger lies in the planning of a new major terrorist attack: "The jihadists are actively preparing a new version of September 11th," Serenko said. The leader of Afghan ISIS had previously stated that the group needed its own version of the September 11 attacks, with a massive number of casualties.
The Taliban is actively engaging with external players, including China, which hopes to suppress Uyghur Islamists. However, as Serenko points out, the Taliban's control in the country is highly conditional. Constant attacks on diplomatic missions of Russia and China in Kabul demonstrate the Taliban's inability to fully manage jihadist groups on their territory.
Serenko also emphasizes that while the Taliban seeks cooperation with China, its motives are primarily commercial. Taliban leaders aim for personal enrichment, while ordinary fighters often face a lack of basic resources, such as food.
In the long term, the threat to Central Asian countries remains high. According to Serenko, the Taliban continues to strengthen its forces, which could lead to the expansion of their influence beyond Afghanistan. Conflicts with neighboring countries, such as the dispute with Uzbekistan over the Amu Darya water resources, may escalate into more serious crises.
Thus, despite Central Asia's attempts to establish relations with the Taliban, the real threat from jihadist groups based in Afghanistan continues to grow, requiring active involvement from the international community to address this issue.
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