U.S. elections and their impact on the Middle East

Editor's note: Moses Becker is a special commentator on political issues for News.Az, a PhD in political science and an expert on interethnic and interreligious relations. The article expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the view of News.Az.

The Middle East, rich in hydrocarbons, has always been a key focus for both the Republican and Democratic parties. Since the founding of Israel in 1948, the country has been America's main ally in the region. Every four years, U.S. presidential candidates vie to prove they are Israel's best friend. This bond isn't just about foreign policy—there are deep-rooted internal reasons, too. For one, the U.S. is home to the world's largest and most influential Jewish community. However, this wasn't always the case.

Despite the American Constitution's promise of equality, Jews have faced periods of prejudice. But through perseverance and a strong emphasis on education, the Jewish community has become a major force in science, business, finance, and tech. By 1957, over 70% of Jews in America were "white-collar" professionals, a number that grew to 87% by 1970. Fast forward to the 21st century, and the Jewish community had reached even greater heights. In 2008, 46% of American Jews were earning over $100,000 a year. Among the 400 richest Americans listed by Forbes, more than a quarter are Jewish. In the U.S. economy, Jews continue to play a leading role, with figures like Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke having headed the Federal Reserve. Out of 160 Nobel Prize winners in science living in the U.S., 61 are Jewish. Out of 358 billionaires, 108 are Jewish.

After the 1992 elections, the number of Jews in Congress hit 33. Plus, the community wields considerable influence in U.S. politics through numerous publications, including the influential Jewish Agency, 80 weekly newspapers, several radio stations and TV programs, major film studios, and more. In President Joe Biden's administration, key Jewish figures include Secretary of State Tony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas, and Attorney General Merrick Garland. However, the Jewish community has reasons to worry, particularly due to shifting demographics.

Since the start of the 21st century, there has been a rise in the number of immigrants from the Middle East, mostly Muslims, who are less inclined to embrace the idea of the American "melting pot." Instead, they aim to reshape America to their liking, bolstered by substantial financial support from Qatar and other countries. This backdrop makes the potential clash between U.S. Muslims and Jews more relevant. It's estimated that by the year 2000, the numbers of Muslims and Jews in the U.S. were roughly equal. Of course, this isn't about any imminent confrontation between the communities, as Muslims don't yet wield the same political influence as Jews. This is partly due to the lack of unity among Muslims from different Middle Eastern countries.

The sympathies of ordinary Americans largely favor Israelis over Palestinians, but this might not last forever. History never stays static. The growing influence of pro-Palestinian elements within the Democratic Party should be a cause for concern. At the same time, there is a decline in support for Zionism among North American Jews, especially among the younger generation. It seems the hard lessons from the Holocaust have been forgotten by some. It's worth noting that nearly half of the Democratic Party now sympathizes with Palestinians, despite significant support from American Jews. Under the Democratic administration, there has been a surge of anti-Semitism on college campuses, which led the Republican-led Education Committee to summon the presidents of Harvard, the University of Pennsylvania, and MIT to testify. During these hearings, university leaders admitted to instances of blatant anti-Semitism following the October 7, 2024, attack on Israel by Hamas. American media reported incidents of physical violence or threats against Jewish students. School campuses saw anti-Semitic and racist graffiti. Videos circulated online showed young people tearing down posters with photos of Hamas hostages.
In contrast, Republicans are strong supporters of Israel. For example, presidential candidate Donald Trump has said that allies should be allowed to "finish off" Hamas and promised that if he returns to power, he will restore the powerful Jewish lobby in American politics that has weakened due to the anti-Zionist sentiments of some non-American-origin Democratic politicians. "Israel," Trump said, "is just a tiny dot compared to the vast lands of the Middle East. I wonder if there is a way to expand it? It's so small, it's almost invisible." Following this, Trump promised, "When I return to the Oval Office, I will support Israel's right to win the war against terrorism. They should have the right to victory in this war, and I will provide Israel with everything necessary to win it, but the victory must be swift." This stance by the 45th president is backed by over 25% of the U.S. adult population (62 million people) who identify as evangelical Protestants. They mainly live in the southern states and are Israel's staunchest allies.

Kamala Harris is expected to largely follow Joe Biden's foreign policy course. However, she might adopt a tougher stance toward Israel due to the ongoing conflict in Gaza, as she has to consider the views of the so-called progressive Democrats. At a rally in Chicago, 30,000 protesters advocated "for the freedom of Palestine and LGBT rights." Harris's wavering stance can be seen in her relationship with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). After her election as a senator from California, long before her presidential run, Harris became a star at the 2017 Policy Conference organized by the powerful pro-Israel lobby. She was often quoted saying, "I grew up in the Bay Area, I fondly remember those Jewish National Fund boxes we would use to collect donations for planting trees for Israel." She then shared an enthusiastic account of her trip through Israel, Judea, and Samaria (the West Bank), which she visited with her Jewish husband, Doug Emhoff.

Harris was also one of the authors of a Senate resolution in January 2017 criticizing President Barack Obama for abstaining during a UN Security Council vote condemning Israel's settlement policy in his last week in office. A year later, when she began contemplating a run for president in 2020, Harris, without making it public, attended an informal AIPAC session, which was later discussed by participants on social media. In 2019, after Democrats were pressured to boycott this meeting, she stayed away but made sure to publish photos with AIPAC leaders in her Capitol Hill office, which led to criticism from the left wing of the party. Like Biden, Harris strongly supports the idea of "two states for two peoples." At the same time, she pleased AIPAC and other "pro-Israel" circles by expressing support for "Israel's right to self-defense."

In her view, the U.S. should not pressure Israel to make peace with the Palestinians, as the resolution "cannot be imposed by outside forces." When it comes to the nuclear deal with Iran, there are nuances that directly affect the national security of Israel and its neighbors. In short, the Middle East is in a state of anxious anticipation. Donald Trump's policy is clear: to end terrorism, curb Iran's ambitions, and establish peace in this crucial region. There's no wavering there. As for the Democrats, their ambivalence is reminiscent of the appeasement policy pursued by Britain and France in Europe before World War II. The same goes for uncontrolled migration to the U.S. from Asia, Africa, and Latin America, which could lead to increased ethnic and religious tensions and, ultimately, the collapse of the American dream. In short, the Jewish community in the U.S. has a lot to think about in the coming days.

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