ASML shares fall as US plans tighter China export curbs

The proposed legislation could block ASML from selling and servicing its DUV (deep ultraviolet) lithography machines in the Chinese market—marking a potential escalation in ongoing efforts to restrict advanced semiconductor technology exports, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.

ASML is the world’s leading manufacturer of lithography tools used to produce semiconductor chips, with limited competition from firms like Nikon and China’s SMEE.

The company plays a critical role in the global chip supply chain, making any restrictions on its exports highly significant for the broader technology sector.

ASML shares dropped as much as 4.7% in early trading before trimming losses, reflecting investor concerns over the potential impact of tighter export controls.

Analysts warn that the proposed rules, if implemented and enforced by the Dutch government, could reduce the company’s revenue and earnings. Some estimates suggest a single-digit percentage decline in sales, while others indicate earnings per share could fall by up to 10%.

China accounts for around 20% of ASML’s expected sales in 2026, although older-generation machines may remain unaffected by the new restrictions.

Experts say any decline in Chinese sales could be partially offset by increased demand from other regions, as chipmakers outside China expand production capacity. However, this may not fully compensate for the lost revenue.

Analysts also warn that stricter export controls could have wider consequences for the global semiconductor market.

Reduced access to advanced chipmaking equipment in China may further tighten supply chains, potentially worsening existing chip shortages and increasing pressure on industries reliant on semiconductors.

The situation highlights the growing intersection of geopolitics and technology, as governments seek to control access to critical infrastructure in the global AI and semiconductor race.