CFOs see US prices rising 4% in 2026, tariffs still worry
US finance chiefs expect prices to rise around 4% next year, with tariffs and trade remaining their top concern, according to a recent survey that may challenge the Federal Reserve’s inflation goals.
The survey of 548 chief financial officers, conducted by the Federal Reserve banks of Richmond and Atlanta with Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, also found declining optimism for both their own companies and the overall US economy. The U.S. optimism index fell to 60.2 in Q4 from 62.9 in Q3, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
Firms expect modest growth in 2026, with median employment rising 1.7% and the economy growing about 1.9%. While 40% of firms plan to hire, roughly 9% anticipate layoffs.
Despite easing since mid-year, tariff and trade concerns remain a top issue for CFOs, who predict significant price increases. The average expected price rise is 4.2%, just below unit cost growth, while revenue growth is expected near 8%.
Experts note that these expectations may indicate inflation staying above the Fed’s 2% target longer than policymakers hope. “Half of firms anticipate price hikes of 3.5% or more,” said John Graham of Duke University.
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