Overall exports from China rose 5.9% in dollar terms to $330.3 billion, surpassing economists’ expectations and recovering from a 1.1% decline in October, according to customs data released on Monday, News.Az reports, citing AP.
While exports to the U.S. have lagged for most of the year, shipments to regions including Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America have surged.
Imports into China grew 1.9% in November, an improvement from October’s 1% increase, despite a continued slump in the property sector weighing on both consumer spending and business investment.
The rebound follows a year-long trade truce between China and the U.S., agreed upon during a late October meeting in South Korea between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. As part of the deal, the U.S. reduced tariffs on Chinese goods, while China agreed to suspend export controls on rare earths.
“While the trade truce and the U.S.’s tariff reductions should be a positive for Chinese exports, we are now entering a period of unfavorable base effects,” wrote ING Bank economists Lynn Song and Deepali Bhargava in a report, referring to the strong export growth seen ahead of Trump’s previous tariff hikes. “This should keep trade growth modest.”
Last month, China’s factory activity contracted for an eighth straight month according to an official survey, as economists said it was still early to determine whether there was a real rebound in external demand following the U.S.-China trade truce.
With exports still going strong, economists generally expect China to more or less meet its economic growth target of around 5% for this year.
Chinese leaders had outlined a focus on advanced manufacturing for the next five years following a high-level meeting in October. An annual economic planning meeting this month is expected to shed light on details of those plans.
A stable global trade environment is not likely to last long, said Chi Lo, Global Market Strategist, BNP Paribas Asset Management, as China-U.S. relations “remain in a stalemate” despite their temporary trade truce.
Still, some economists believe that China will continue to gain export market share in coming years.
Morgan Stanley predicts by 2030, China’s market share in global exports will reach 16.5%, up from about 15% currently, fueled by its edge in advanced manufacturing and high-growth sectors such as electric vehicles, robotics and batteries.
“Despite persistent trade tensions, continued protectionism, and G20 economies taking up active industrial policies, we believe China will gain more share in the global goods export market,” Morgan Stanley Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya said in a recent note.
