Gasoline demand growth to slow this year on EV growth in China, U.S.
Global petrol demand growth could halve in 2024, squeezing second-half refinery margins, analysts said, driven by a shift to electric cars in China and the United States and a return to normal consumption after last year's bounce following COVID-19, News.Az reports citing Reuters.
In the lowest growth since 2020, demand is likely to rise 340,000 barrels per day (bpd), to stand at 26.5 million bpd this year, says consultancy Wood Mackenzie, down from growth of 700,000 bpd last year, as China nears the point of peak transport fuel demand and the U.S. has surpassed it. "Penetration of electric vehicles has been increasing in U.S. and China," said Woodmac analyst Sushant Gupta. "For this year Chinese demand will grow by only 10,000 bpd, due to higher EV uptake." Consultancy Rystad Energy pegs global gasoline demand at about 26 million bpd in 2024, up about 300,000 bpd from growth of about 700,000 bpd in 2023, fuelled by the consumption boom after the pandemic, said analyst Mukesh Sahdev. China, once the world's driver of gasoline demand, is expected to account for more than half of all EV sales this year, the International Energy Agency has said. Gasoline consumption by the world's largest crude importer is set to grow by about 1.3%, or about 2 million tons, to 165.1 million metric tons (3.8 million bpd) this year, forecasts by a research arm of China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) show. The research arm of China's biggest refiner, Sinopec, expects gasoline demand to rise by 1.7%, or about 3 million tons, to stand at 182 million tons this year. As falling prices spur demand, the share of electric cars sold this year could reach 45% in China, about 25% in Europe and more than 11% in the United States, the IEA estimates. By comparison, booming car sales, along with high economic growth and low EV penetration, are driving gasoline demand in India and Indonesia. India's petrol consumption will hit a fresh record of 39.2 million tons (908,000 bpd) in the year to March 2025, up about 5% from 37.2 million tons in the year to March 2024, government estimates showed.
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