The warning was issued by the state Commissioner for Environment and Water Resources, Tokunbo Wahab, during a press briefing on the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction and its socio-economic implications, News.Az reports, citing foreign media.
Wahab said the country’s weather agency, Nigerian Meteorological Agency, released its 2026 seasonal climate outlook on February 10.
The forecast outlines expected rainfall patterns, temperature trends and other weather conditions across Nigeria. According to the commissioner, the Lagos State Government holds such briefings annually to keep residents informed and prepared for the potential effects of the rainy season.
Based on the forecast, Lagos is expected to see an early to normal start of the rainy season, a normal to late end, and rainfall levels ranging from normal to above normal. Temperatures are also projected to remain above average between March and May.
Wahab noted that 2026 will begin with a weak phase of the La Niña in January, while a neutral phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation is expected to persist during the first six to eight months of the year. This combination could lead to an earlier start, longer duration and delayed end of the rainy season in Lagos.
He also provided rainfall projections for the state’s divisions. Ikeja Division is expected to record rainfall from March 31 to December 2 with about 1,932mm. Badagry Division may see rainfall from March 28 to December 3 totaling around 2,010mm. Ikorodu Division is projected to receive about 1,935mm between March 31 and December 2, while Lagos Island Division could record approximately 1,968mm from March 30 to December 2. Epe Division is forecast to receive about 1,984mm between March 29 and December 3.
Across the state’s 20 local government areas, Lagos is expected to record an average annual rainfall of about 1,965mm.
Wahab warned that above-normal rainfall could increase the risk of flooding in some parts of the state. He also noted that strong winds at the beginning and end of the rainy season may threaten lives, damage property and disrupt economic activities.
“High rainfall amounts could lead to flooding in parts of the state. Strong winds during the onset and end of the rainy season may disrupt commercial activities, cause flight delays and result in revenue loss,” he said.
He added that Lagos has installed a network of weather stations and river gauges to monitor rainfall and water levels, helping authorities respond more effectively to potential flood-related incidents.
