World could face strongest El Niño since 1870s, scientists warn

Scientists are warning that the world could face its most powerful El Niño event since the 1870s, as conditions developing beneath the Pacific Ocean point to potentially major global weather disruptions later this year and into 2027.

Atmospheric monitoring agencies say the 2026 El Niño is intensifying and may evolve into a “super El Niño,” with several forecasts suggesting it could become one of the strongest such events in modern history, News.Az reports, citing NationalWorld.

Experts say the growing threat is being driven by major oceanic changes that have accelerated in recent weeks. A large subsurface heat pulse, known as a Kelvin wave, is expected to rise toward the ocean surface, triggering a broad reorganization of global weather systems beginning in the tropics.

Scientists warn that once the process intensifies, it could lead to widespread weather disruptions during the second half of 2026 and into 2027.

Most climate models now indicate at least a 50 percent chance that the event could develop into a super El Niño, which would raise sea surface temperatures by more than 2 degrees Celsius above average and potentially fuel severe weather events worldwide.

“Confidence is clearly shifting higher on potentially the biggest El Niño event since the 1870s,” said Paul Roundy, a professor at the University at Albany and an El Niño specialist.

Although El Niño is only one factor affecting global climate patterns, experts say it has an outsized impact on weather systems around the world.

Typically, stronger El Niño events can reduce hurricane activity in some regions while intensifying storms in others.

During winter, a stronger El Niño often strengthens the subtropical jet stream, bringing wetter conditions and heavier snowfall in some regions if temperatures remain low enough, while other areas may experience unusually warm winters.

Scientists caution that a super El Niño could trigger more extreme weather shifts overall, including large-scale flooding, severe droughts, and major changes in global storm tracks.

News.Az 

By Nijat Babayev