Moody’s: Azerbaijan debt to stay below 24% of GDP
Azerbaijan’s public debt is expected to remain below 24% of GDP in 2026 and 2027, according to the latest forecast from international ratings agency Moody’s, signaling continued fiscal stability despite rising government spending.
Moody’s projects Azerbaijan’s total public debt will stand at 23.9% of GDP in 2026, easing slightly to 23.8% in 2027. A similar level is expected by the end of 2025, reflecting a stable debt trajectory over the medium term, News.Az reports, citing Report.
While debt levels remain low by international standards, the agency notes that the ratio of public debt to budget revenues will rise as oil prices normalize and state spending increases. This ratio is forecast to grow from 41.6% in 2022 — a year of exceptionally high oil revenues — to 74.6% in 2026 and 78.4% in 2027. Despite this increase, Moody’s considers the figures manageable and consistent with fiscal sustainability.
Debt servicing costs are also expected to stay modest. Interest payments are projected to account for just 5.7% of budget revenues in 2026 and 6.1% in 2027, remaining well below risk thresholds.
Moody’s forecasts are based on an average Brent crude oil price of $69 per barrel in 2025 and $60 per barrel in 2026–2027. Over the medium term, oil prices are expected to fluctuate between $55 and $75 per barrel.
The agency’s assessment suggests Azerbaijan is maintaining prudent debt management while navigating lower oil revenues and higher public spending, keeping fiscal risks under control.
By Aysel Mammadzada
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