Rio Tinto–Glencore merger may face China asset demands
China may push for asset sales before approving the proposed merger between mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore, analysts and legal experts say, citing Beijing’s concerns over resource security and market concentration.
The companies confirmed last week that they are in early merger talks for the second time in two years. A combined entity would be the world’s largest mining firm worth over $200 billion, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
Given the large volume of metal sales to China, any deal would require clearance from Beijing, as seen in previous mining mega-deals such as Glencore’s $35 billion takeover of Xstrata in 2013. Analysts expect Chinese regulators to closely scrutinize copper production and marketing, as well as iron ore marketing, and potentially demand divestments.
Prior to merger talks, Rio Tinto was already exploring an asset-for-equity arrangement to reduce the 11% stake held by its biggest shareholder, China’s state-run Chinalco. Assets including Rio’s Simandou iron ore project in Guinea and the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia were of interest, according to sources.
Analysts say African assets would be top divestment candidates, as Latin American governments have become less receptive to Chinese investment.
Beijing previously forced Glencore to sell its stake in Peru’s Las Bambas copper mine to Chinese investors as a condition for approving the Xstrata deal. It also compelled the company to supply Chinese customers with minimum volumes of copper concentrate for seven years to address concerns over market power.
Copper has become even more strategically important due to the global energy transition and AI-driven demand, with Rio, Glencore and rival BHP boosting investments in the metal.
Analysts note that political sensitivities could complicate the merger. Washington has framed China’s dominance in key minerals as a national security issue, raising questions about its reaction to large mineral asset transfers to Chinese entities. Previous global deals — including Qualcomm’s bid for NXP and Nvidia’s pursuit of Arm — collapsed after Chinese regulatory approval was withheld.
Analysts warn the Rio Tinto-Glencore combination would require a long and complex regulatory process, further complicated by Chinalco’s position as a major shareholder.
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