Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, the leading global contract chipmaker and a major supplier to companies such as Nvidia and Apple, is forecast to post a net profit of T$475.2 billion ($15.02 billion) for the three months ended December 31. The estimate is based on an LSEG SmartEstimate compiled from forecasts by 19 analysts, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
SmartEstimates give greater weight to projections from analysts with a stronger track record for accuracy.
TSMC, Asia’s most valuable listed company with a market capitalisation of about $1.38 trillion—more than double that of South Korean rival Samsung Electronics—is scheduled to report earnings on Thursday. The company will also issue guidance for the first quarter and the full year during an earnings call set for 0600 GMT.
Last week, TSMC reported a stronger-than-expected 20.45% increase in fourth-quarter revenue. Any profit figure exceeding T$452.3 billion would represent the company’s highest-ever quarterly net income and mark its eighth straight quarter of profit growth.
According to Galen Zeng, senior research manager at research firm IDC, fourth-quarter revenue was boosted by the full utilisation of TSMC’s 3-nanometre production capacity. This was driven by the iPhone 17 series, which uses Apple’s A19 chip, along with continued robust demand linked to artificial intelligence applications.
Looking ahead, Zeng said IDC expects TSMC’s revenue to grow 25%–30% in 2026 in U.S. dollar terms, up from its previous forecast of 22%–26%, citing booming demand for AI server accelerators and significant contributions from the company’s next-generation 2-nanometre node.
"The main driver is the explosive growth of the AI server accelerator manufacturing market," Zeng said, adding that the market is projected to grow 78% year-over-year in 2026.
Shay Boloor, chief market strategist at Futurum Equities, said AI demand is clearly accelerating and TSMC continues to gain share at the leading edge, where competitors are struggling to keep pace.
But a faster-than-expected ramp-up of overseas fabs could dilute margin gains expected from TSMC's 2-nanometre node and pricing, he added.
TSMC is investing $165 billion to build chip factories in the U.S. in the state of Arizona, and U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said in a podcast released last week the company was set to invest more into the country.
TSMC, which is currently in its pre-earnings quiet period, did not reply to a Reuters request for comment.
It remains unclear how much U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs will affect TSMC. Taiwan's exports to the United States are subject to a 20% tariff, but that excludes chips.
TSMC's Taipei-listed shares gained 44.2% last year, outperforming the 25.7% rise for the broader market.
