Iran is unlikely to pursue full escalation but may opt for a controlled expansion of the conflict, targeting energy infrastructure to shift it into the economic sphere. A full-scale invasion remains improbable given Iran’s capabilities and terrain. However, prolonged tensions risk destabilising the South Caucasus, potentially triggering security challenges, placing strain on infrastructure, and leading to refugee flows.

In recent years, amid deepening instability in the international system, intensified rivalry among major powers, and regional confrontations, domestic security has become one of the top priorities for states. In this environment, attempts at foreign influence are no longer limited to overt political and diplomatic pressure but are increasingly carried out through domestic political actors, financial mechanisms, and covert networks. The investigation conducted in Azerbaijan into criminal acts directed against state authority can be viewed as a concrete manifestation of this new threat model.

By Kerim Sultanov

The Azerbaijani-Belarusian talks held during Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's state visit to Azerbaijan confirm once again that the two countries maintain strong friendly relations, demonstrating the dynamic development of their interaction.