Fitch revises Azerbaijan's outlook to stable; affirms at 'BB+'

Fitch forecasts GDP growth of 4.9% in 2021, following last year's 4.3% contraction, driven by a recovery in the non-oil sector and supported by the vaccination rollout, currently 97 doses per hundred people.

Fitch projects GDP growth slows to 2.9% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023 (below the 'BB' medians of 3.8% and 3.5%)

According to the October forecast of Fitch Solutions (part of the Fitch Group), Azerbaijan's GDP growth in 2021 was expected at 2.5%.

According to Fitch Solutions, Azerbaijan's GDP growth rate in 2022 was expected at 3.3%.

Azerbaijani government forecasts GDP growth at the level of up to 5.1% for 2021. For 9 months of this year, real GDP growth amounted to 4.8%.

The average GDP growth rate in the country in 2022-2026 is expected to be 3.9%, including 5% in non-oil GDP.

The decline in Azerbaijan's GDP in 2020 due to coronavirus-related restrictions and a decrease in oil production as part of the OPEC + deal amounted to 4.3%.

According to S&P forecasts, Azerbaijan's GDP growth will be 4% in 2021, and 2% in 2023. Azerbaijan's economy is expected to grow by 1.5% annually.


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