Iran and Pakistan on the brink of conflict

The impending conflict between Iran and Pakistan over the construction of the "Peace" gas pipeline is intensifying, reflecting the complex geopolitical and economic challenges facing the countries in the region. The long-awaited project, which was supposed to symbolize energy partnership and mutually beneficial cooperation, has turned into a source of tension and diplomatic friction. Amid the pressure of international sanctions and restrictions imposed by the United States, Tehran is determined to defend its interests by resorting to international legal mechanisms.

Iran has sent a " final notice " to the Pakistani government about its intention to appeal to the International Court of Arbitration at the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris in September 2024. Tehran's move is due to Pakistan's failure to fulfill its obligations regarding the construction of the "Peace" main gas pipeline. According to The News, the Iranian side was forced to take such a step after years of delays and a lack of progress in implementing the project.

The "Peace" gas pipeline project was initially conceived as a symbol of strengthening energy partnership between Iran and Pakistan. The agreement to build the Pakistani part of the pipeline was signed in 2009, with work scheduled to be completed by December 2014. The contract included penalties of $1 million for each day of delay starting from January 1, 2015, highlighting the seriousness of Pakistan's commitments. However, the project faced significant difficulties in 2014 when it was postponed for a decade due to US sanctions against Iran. These sanctions became the main obstacle to the project's implementation, as they limited Pakistan's financial and technical capabilities.

Despite these challenges, an updated contract was signed in September 2019 between Pakistan's Inter-State Gas Systems and Iran's National Iranian Gas Company. According to the new agreement, Islamabad pledged to complete the pipeline construction by 2024 and begin importing about 21 million cubic meters of natural gas per day. In exchange for these commitments, Tehran agreed not to go to arbitration, giving Pakistan additional time to complete the project. Nevertheless, construction has not yet begun, and the deadline for the first phase of the project, an 81-kilometer section, has been postponed to September 2024, prompting the Iranian side to send a "final notice."

Pakistan's position remains complicated, as the country continues to face pressure from both domestic economic needs and international obligations. A Pakistani government representative emphasized that the project could not be implemented due to existing US sanctions. Pakistan's attempts to negotiate with the American side have been unsuccessful, and the Biden administration continues to oppose the construction of the Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline. In March 2024, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu made it clear during a Congressional hearing that Islamabad's cooperation with Iran on this project could have "serious consequences."

For its part, Iran is no longer willing to tolerate delays and the inconsistency of the Pakistani side. Tehran is firmly determined to protect its interests on the international stage, which could lead to lengthy and costly legal proceedings.

It remains unclear how events surrounding the "Peace" pipeline will unfold. If Pakistan fails to find a compromise with Iran or gain support from international partners, this could lead to an escalation of the conflict and strain relations in the region. On the other hand, changes in international politics or a possible easing of sanctions against Iran could open new opportunities for cooperation and development in the energy sector in South Asia.

News.Az