Could Trump and Putin hold talks in Azerbaijan?- EXPERT OPINIONS
@CNN / Nguồn
In recent days, several media outlets have reported that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are planning a meeting , possibly on neutral territory. Among the proposed venues, Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, has been mentioned as a potential location. News.az consulted political experts from Azerbaijan and Russia to evaluate the likelihood of such a meeting and the feasibility of Baku as the host city.
Baku’s strategic advantages
Russian political analyst Sergey Markov, in an interview with News.az , emphasized Baku’s strong candidacy, citing multiple factors:
“Baku has many advantages. It is a major city with excellent logistics and has hosted numerous high-profile international events, including the recent COP-29 Climate Summit . Moreover, Baku has been the venue for several meetings between the Russian Chief of the General Staff and the Chairman of the U.S . Joint Chiefs of Staff. These successful meetings demonstrate the trust both U.S. and Russian military intelligence have in Baku as a neutral and effective location.”
Markov also highlighted Baku’s neutrality as a critical factor:
“Neutrality ensures that neither side feels they are conceding ground. For Trump and Putin, meeting on neutral territory is essential. Trump would not travel to Russia or a CSTO -aligned country, and Putin would avoid NATO countries actively supporting Ukraine. Security is another crucial aspect. Western nations have demonized Putin, openly supporting Ukraine’s military methods. While Trump does not face significant security threats, Putin must contend with risks from Western intelligence agencies, particularly those of Ukraine, the U.K., and the U.S. Baku offers a secure environment, as it is free from foreign intelligence influence and closely monitors its territory.”
Markov also pointed out that Baku’s geographical proximity to Russia eliminates the need for overflight of hostile territories, adding, “Azerbaijan’s sovereignty ensures security, and even the activities of Turkish intelligence align with neutrality, reflecting Erdogan’s balanced approach.”
However, Markov warned of potential obstacles from Armenian, anti-Turkish, and anti-Azerbaijani lobbying groups in Washington, which might oppose Baku’s selection.
Baku’s proven role as a neutral venue
Azerbaijani political analyst Sadraddin Soltan noted Baku’s history of hosting successful meetings between NATO and Russian officials:
“Baku’s balanced relations with both Russia and the U.S. make it a viable option. If these meetings had not been successful, they would not have been repeated. Security concerns and Baku’s neutral stance further strengthen its candidacy.”
Soltan added that while other locations, such as Dubai or Riyadh, might be considered, Baku’s neutrality and logistical advantages make it the preferred choice. He also noted that Turkey, despite its balanced relations with both powers, is unlikely to host the meeting due to its NATO membership.
Broader geopolitical implications
Experts agree that if the meeting occurs, the primary focus will be the Russia-Ukraine war. However, other critical issues could also be on the agenda, including nuclear disarmament, counterterrorism, a unified strategy in the Middle East, and peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Soltan further highlighted the potential discussion of regional disputes, such as those in Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Belarus.
Challenges to negotiation
Russian political scientist Andrey Nikulin expressed skepticism about the likelihood of significant progress on the Russia-Ukraine war:
“Moscow’s current interest in negotiations is tied to its own terms, which are unacceptable to Kyiv and the West. While internal political or economic factors could shift this stance, neither side is presently ready to make concessions. Behind-the-scenes discussions may be ongoing, but formal talks remain unlikely in the near term.”
Nikulin noted that both Moscow and Kyiv are intensifying efforts to strengthen their positions ahead of Trump’s inauguration, but such actions do not guarantee success.
Azerbaijan’s growing role in diplomacy
Tural Ismayilov, another political analyst , highlighted Azerbaijan’s increasing prominence as a neutral platform for diplomacy:
“Azerbaijan has hosted numerous meetings between NATO commanders and Russian officials , solidifying its reputation as a neutral and secure venue. This makes Baku a strong contender for a Trump-Putin summit. Discussions will likely center on the Russia-Ukraine war, but broader geopolitical shifts, particularly in the Middle East, may also play a role.”
Ismayilov emphasized the broader significance of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in shaping global geopolitics, noting that messages from the West about accommodating Russia’s territorial gains reflect the complex process of redrawing the global political map.
While the possibility of a Trump-Putin meeting in Baku remains speculative, the city’s neutrality, strategic location, and proven track record make it a credible option. The outcome of such a summit could have significant implications for global diplomacy and the evolving geopolitical landscape.
Similar news
