Cutting ties with Moscow: Why the Baltics no longer want Russian electricity – Expert opinions
On February 8, the Baltic states—Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia—will take a decisive step in their energy independence, officially disconnecting from the BRELL system, which has linked them to Russia and Belarus for decades. This move marks the final break from Moscow's energy influence, as the three nations integrate into the European power grid via Poland.
The decision, years in the making, is not just a technical transition but a strategic and geopolitical shift, reinforcing the Baltic states’ alignment with the European Union and NATO. While this change strengthens their energy security, it also deals a financial and strategic blow to Russia, which will lose an estimated $700 million in annual revenue from electricity exports to the region.
To better understand the motives behind this decision and its consequences, News.Az reached out to Baku-based energy experts, who provided insights into why the Baltic states are cutting ties with Russia and what this means for the region’s energy landscape.
Ilham Shaban, a leading oil industry expert and head of the Oil Research Center, explained that the Baltic states are determined to cut their remaining ties with Russia, including the shared energy system inherited from the Soviet era.
"They no longer consider themselves economically, politically, or culturally connected to Russia. From this perspective, they have no interest in maintaining or developing any ties. After joining both the European Union and NATO in 2004, the three Baltic states decided to gradually withdraw from the energy cooperation agreement signed in 1991 between Russia, Belarus, and the Baltic republics. They have been preparing for this exit—both legally and practically—since 2017. In 2019, they signed a roadmap with the European Union, outlining full integration into the EU energy system within approximately six years. The process was completed 10 months ahead of schedule—originally set for December 2025, but now finalized on February 8. Moving forward, they do not plan to engage in any energy exchange with Russia."
According to Shaban, Lithuania’s Minister of Energy stated that not only will power lines connected to the Russian and Belarusian systems be decommissioned, but even the poles supporting these lines will be dismantled in due course.
“We will be fully integrated into the energy trade with the civilized world, as trading energy with Russia poses a threat to our energy security.”
Discussing the financial impact on Russia, Shaban highlighted that Moscow is expected to lose over $700 million in revenue.
"Russia exported approximately 9 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually to these three countries. Moreover, electricity was supplied to the Kaliningrad exclave—an isolated Russian territory with no land connection to mainland Russia—via the Baltic states. Now, energy will have to be delivered solely through the Baltic Sea. Kaliningrad currently has four thermal power plants powered by gas and fuel oil delivered by ship, as there is no railway access. Since 2022, the Baltic states have legally suspended cargo transportation from Russia and Belarus."
Shaban noted that since 2019, the European Union has provided 1.23 billion euros in financial aid to the Baltic states—covering 75% of the costs required to sever ties with Russia’s energy system and integrate with the EU’s.
"The Baltic countries also allocated around 1.38 billion euros from their own budgets. Finland has laid two submarine high-voltage cable lines with Estonia, while Sweden has connected Lithuania with a similar cable. These three interconnections allow them to trade energy freely within the EU and compensate for any energy deficit exceeding 8 billion kilowatt-hours."
Economist Eldeniz Amirov also shared his perspective with News.Az, stating that in today’s global economy, reliability in energy partnerships outweighs price factors.
"Russia is no longer viewed as a reliable energy partner. Over the years, Moscow has repeatedly halted energy supplies for political reasons, creating instability in various countries—particularly in its neighboring states. This has reinforced the idea that dependence on Russian energy carries the risk of sudden supply disruptions."
Amirov emphasized that the decision to pivot towards Europe is not only about energy security but also a step toward deeper European integration.
"The Baltic states have long aspired to be fully integrated into Europe. Their current approach aligns with the broader European integration process. From this perspective, their decision is entirely logical, and I fully support it."
Regarding the consequences for Russia, Amirov noted that Moscow is losing a major energy partner, further exacerbating its export challenges.
"Russia is already facing serious difficulties in its energy exports, and this move will only deepen the problem. Losing such a key partner is not just a financial blow—it also weakens Russia’s geopolitical standing. Other neighboring countries will likely take note of the Baltic states’ actions and reconsider their own energy ties with Russia. Over time, this will accelerate Russia’s isolation—not just annually, but almost on a monthly basis."
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