Future of Georgia: Can the opposition turn the tide? - INTERVIEW

By Asif Aydinli

The situation in Georgia following the recent parliamentary elections remains tense. Protests erupting after the announcement of the results have garnered attention both domestically and internationally. Youth involvement, their calls for European integration, and the opposition’s role in the unfolding events have become central topics of discussion.

In an interview with News.Az, Shota Apkhadze, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, shared his forecasts on the development of the situation, analyzed the opposition’s strategy, and discussed the impact of external factors on Georgia’s internal politics.



– What are your forecasts regarding the situation in Georgia after the parliamentary elections? Are the protesters prepared to stand their ground?

– The current situation was quite predictable. Even before the elections, Western nations had hinted at potential fraud by the ruling Georgian Dream party. The radical opposition had prepared for such a scenario well in advance. Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili’s agreement with opposition parties on future actions also points to prior planning for protests. Protesters' demands for the government’s resignation reflect the public's accumulated discontent over recent years. The opposition is skillfully leveraging this, consolidating social groups dissatisfied with the authorities.

However, it’s unlikely that the protests will last long. Radical opposition leaders are financially supporting the demonstrations, particularly engaging the youth, who often fail to grasp the broader context of events. Additionally, the protests are fueled by hasty Western statements. Notably, it was Western partners who halted Georgia’s European integration process by suspending negotiations and then blamed Georgian Dream for this impasse. I believe the protests will continue for at least another two weeks.

– How do these protests differ from previous ones?

– The main difference lies in the active involvement of youth openly advocating for European integration. Previous protests revolved around entirely different agendas.



– Does the opposition have a unified strategy?

– Yes, the opposition has a clear strategy. Opposition parties have refused to participate in the newly elected parliament, rejecting the election results. This position is being coordinated and guided by Salome Zourabichvili.

– What is the role of imprisoned former President Mikheil Saakashvili in the protests?

– Mikheil Saakashvili’s influence has significantly diminished. His figure has been marginalized and discredited, and he lacks authority among the youth participating in the protests. Moreover, his former party has distanced itself from him.

– In recent years, there has been some warming of relations between Russia and Georgia. Do you think Georgian Dream might move towards restoring diplomatic ties with Moscow? Is there public support for this in Georgia?

– At the state level, there are no such signals yet. Since 2012, Georgian Dream has maintained informal diplomacy with Moscow. The party's founder, Bidzina Ivanishvili, has close ties with the Russian elite, including Igor Sechin, the chairman of Rosneft’s board of directors. However, openly pursuing these relations could expose the party to criticism from the opposition, making the restoration of diplomatic ties with Russia unlikely in the next five years.

Nevertheless, a significant portion of Georgian society supports the idea of dialogue with Russia despite the occupation of part of Georgia’s territory. Serbia serves as a relevant example, maintaining relations with Washington despite the Kosovo issue. A pragmatic approach calls for restoring relations between the two nations.

– Can it be said that Georgia has become a new battleground between Russia and the West?

– The South Caucasus has always been a geopolitical arena for competition between great powers and regional players. The current situation is a continuation of this tradition.

News.Az