Middle Eastern trends: How Iran Is avoiding a large-scale conflict with Israel

Editor's note: Prof. Zeev Khanin teaches at the Department of Political Studies and heads Post-Soviet Conflicts Research Program at the BESA Center for Strategic Studies, Bar-Ilan University. The article expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the view of News.Az.

Amid the escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East, the standoff between Iran and Israel remains a major international focus. With a surge in military and political activity in the region, we’re witnessing a rapidly evolving situation that could reshape the future stability of this critical area of the world.

The situation on Israel’s northern border, particularly involving Hezbollah, is increasingly complex and layered, especially with the involvement of various global players. Recent developments indicate that, despite Iran's fierce rhetoric of retaliation, the country is likely avoiding a full-scale conflict with Israel, fully aware of the potentially catastrophic consequences such a war could bring.

In the region, significant forces are aligned against the Iranian bloc: three US aircraft carrier groups are stationed, with one possibly departing soon but the other two expected to stay for a longer period. An alliance comprising the US, Israel, and pro-American Arab nations is forming to counter any potential Iranian aggression, as seen in April this year. Iran understands that entering a large-scale conflict could lead to disastrous outcomes, including the destruction of infrastructure, capitals, and oil facilities, with a potential loss of up to 90% in production and exports. The events in April demonstrated that Iranian air defenses were ineffective against Israeli airstrikes, which could be further supported by British and American aircraft.
Currently, Iran is holding back from aggressive actions, although the rhetoric of revenge continues. The initial cause of the conflict remains unclear, and Iran does not seem to be planning an imminent attack. Meanwhile, tensions persist in northern Israel. Hezbollah is waiting for a green light from Tehran for a coordinated strike but has learned that Iran considers it too early to launch widespread military operations. Hezbollah has been in conflict with Israel since October 8 of the previous year, following Hamas’s aggression. While the conflict is largely positional, a third of Galilee and half of Lebanon are effectively combat zones. Hezbollah’s attempts to strike have been met with Israeli preemptive actions, destroying over 100 of their rocket sites and weapons caches, halting further attacks on Israel.

Hezbollah has fired more than 200 rockets, leading to localized clashes. In response, Hezbollah is trying to bolster its image by claiming it has sufficiently retaliated against Israel and will adjust its actions as needed. Israel, having neutralized a significant part of Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal, has avoided launching a full-scale offensive. If a broader war were to break out, it would involve not just Hezbollah but Lebanon as a whole, as Israel would view Lebanon, a haven for terrorists, as part of the conflict.

Lebanon is effectively held hostage by Hezbollah, yet Israel has so far refrained from attacking Lebanese infrastructure. Hezbollah’s assets are spread across various locations, including near ports and airports, and a strike on Lebanon could plunge the country into a dire state, as noted by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.

In these volatile conditions, it's crucial to recognize that the dynamics of the conflict remain highly complex and unpredictable. Despite current trends and strategies, the situation could change rapidly due to new developments or actions by the involved parties.

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