Nihat Kaşıkcı: “Without Türkiye, Syria cannot counter Israel’s expansion” – INTERVIEW

President of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Syria’s interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa met in Ankara to discuss security issues, the reconstruction of Syria’s economy, and the strengthening of bilateral cooperation. During a joint press conference, Erdoğan emphasized that Türkiye remains steadfast in its commitment to preserving Syria’s territorial integrity and unity.

The Turkish leader also pledged support for rebuilding Syria’s war-torn cities, stressing that economic recovery would be a key factor in facilitating the voluntary return of refugees. He further called on the Arab and Islamic world to back the new Syrian administration. What opportunities does this dialogue between Ankara and Damascus present? Could it mark the beginning of a new phase of military cooperation? And what role will Türkiye play in stabilizing Syria? News.Az reached out to Turkish researcher, writer, and journalist Nihat Kaşıkcı for insights.

- What areas will the planned military cooperation between Türkiye and Syria cover?

- The details emerging from the recent negotiations are quite limited. While reports suggest that certain agreements have been reached, no official statements outlining specific terms have been issued yet. However, it can be assumed that the discussions revolved around Syria’s territorial integrity and restricting foreign entities from transporting weapons. This likely refers to the YPG/PYD—the Syrian wing of the PKK.

- How will Türkiye be involved in this issue?

- Does the Syrian army possess sufficient military capability to take control and drive out this terrorist organization, particularly considering that it is armed and backed by the United States? Given this reality, it is evident that without Türkiye’s support and military presence, Syria would struggle to fully restore its territorial integrity. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that concrete decisions and agreements in this regard were made during yesterday’s talks.

- Does Türkiye plan to establish military bases on Syrian territory? - There are speculations that several military bases could be established—I have encountered such claims as well. It is essential to consider that over the past five to six years, Türkiye has conducted approximately three to four military operations in Syria, ensuring security in several regions. The Turkish military remains present in these areas, where administrative structures have been set up, schools have been opened, civil institutions are operational, security is maintained, and trade has revived. Moreover, the Turkish lira is used in economic transactions in these zones.

Now, discussions must focus on how the alliance between Türkiye and Syria will be structured. The conversation should not only address the establishment of military bases but also a broader security strategy. Of course, military bases will be necessary, given the limited capabilities of the Syrian army, particularly after the extensive damage inflicted upon it during the revolution and ongoing strikes from Israel, which continues expanding its occupation of the Golan Heights.

Without Türkiye’s military presence, Syria would face significant challenges both in preserving its territorial integrity and in countering Israel’s expansionist ambitions. While no official statements have been made yet, it is highly likely that Türkiye will establish military bases in Syria. However, this process could be formalized through legal agreements with the new Syrian leadership within the framework of security and strategic military cooperation.

- Does Türkiye have plans to deploy F-16 fighter jets in Syria?

- For deterrence purposes, Türkiye may consider deploying its military forces in specific areas of Syria, potentially including F-16 fighter jets. It is quite possible that this necessity was discussed during negotiations.

However, it is crucial to remember that Türkiye shares a 911-kilometer border with Syria, and its southeastern regions remain exposed to terrorist threats and national security risks. Türkiye already maintains a military presence in the region, with significant bases in Malatya and Diyarbakır. F-16 jets launched from the Diyarbakır base can reach deep into Syrian territory within a short timeframe.

It is also worth noting that future agreements between Türkiye and Syria could include provisions regarding military bases and strategic zones, ensuring compliance with international law. -

Could the deployment of F-16s be seen as a strategic message, similar to what happened in Karabakh?

- First and foremost, it is essential to acknowledge that the victory in the Karabakh war was a triumph of the valiant Azerbaijani army. As a fraternal nation, Türkiye took all necessary steps dictated by this brotherhood.

The deployment of F-16s to Azerbaijan before the war was indeed a strategic message, but they were never used in combat as there was no military necessity. Similarly, Türkiye may use the presence of F-16s in Syria as a form of strategic signaling.

However, the key question is: who is this deterrence directed at? Iran has officially withdrawn most of its forces from Syria, and Russia has significantly reduced its presence, focusing on securing its bases in Tartus and Hmeimim. This leaves the United States as the primary competitor, given its continued support for the YPG/PYD.

Türkiye possesses substantial deterrent power, particularly through its drones and missile systems. Therefore, I do not believe that deploying F-16s in Syria would be a decisive move.

- Are Western countries concerned about Türkiye’s presence in Syria?

Photo: aa.com.tr

- Western perspectives on this issue vary. The United States, Israel, and France clearly do not want to see Türkiye strengthening its position in Syria, yet they lack the means to prevent it.

Saudi Arabia, too, is wary of Türkiye’s growing influence, but it recognizes that Türkiye is a pivotal regional player.

Iran, unfortunately, pursues a contradictory policy. Instead of supporting fellow Muslim nations, it aided Armenia during the Karabakh war. Despite Türkiye’s repeated attempts to build amicable relations, Tehran seizes every opportunity to undermine Ankara’s interests.

As for Europe, the situation is more complex. Germany and France seek to limit Türkiye’s influence, but they are also dependent on Turkish cooperation to manage the ongoing migration crisis.

- How does the West approach the issue of Syrian refugees?

- This matter must be examined in a broader context. Europe—especially Germany—does not want to accept migrants who do not align with its cultural and religious identity. Yet, Germany requires 500,000 new workers annually due to its aging population.

At present, Germany faces a labor shortage, dwindling natural resources, and declining technological dominance. Its response has been a selective migration approach—welcoming skilled professionals while leaving the rest in Türkiye.

However, this method cannot be sustained indefinitely. Europe now finds itself at a crossroads: on one hand, it needs a workforce, but on the other, the presence of a growing Muslim population challenges traditional European values.

Looking ahead, Türkiye will continue to play a crucial role in the Syrian issue, emerging as a decisive factor not only for the West but also for regional actors.  

News.Az