AI boom to drive 50% copper demand jump by 2040: S&P
Global copper demand is set to surge 50% by 2040 as artificial intelligence, defense and robotics industries expand, but production will struggle to keep up without major investment in new mines and recycling, consulting firm S&P Global warned on Thursday.
Demand for the metal is expected to reach 42 million metric tons annually by 2040, up from 28 million in 2025, according to the report. Without additional supply, more than 10 million metric tons — nearly a quarter of expected demand — could go unmet, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
AI has become a major new driver for copper-intensive data centers, alongside continued growth in electric vehicles, air conditioners and other consumer appliances. Rising defense spending in countries such as Japan and Germany is also contributing to long-term consumption.
“The underlying demand factor here is electrification of the world, and copper is the metal of electrification,” said Dan Yergin, S&P’s vice chairman and one of the report’s authors.
Copper is widely used across construction, transportation, technology and electronics due to its high conductivity and durability. Chile and Peru remain the top producers, while China dominates smelting. The United States imports roughly half of the copper it uses each year.
The new forecast differs from S&P’s 2022 “net zero” scenario by assuming copper demand will rise even without aggressive government climate policies, reflecting a shifting political landscape around the energy transition.
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