Oil dip as Iran reaffirms nuclear commitments, OPEC+ prepares output hike
Global oil prices edged lower on Friday after Iran reaffirmed its commitment to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and amid expectations that OPEC+ will announce a further increase in production this weekend.
Brent crude futures slipped 22 cents, or 0.32%, to $68.58 a barrel as of 0445 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined by 12 cents, or 0.18%, to $66.88 a barrel. Trading volumes were muted due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
The decline in prices follows reports that the United States is preparing to resume nuclear talks with Iran next week. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran remains committed to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), easing concerns of an imminent escalation in hostilities that had previously contributed to market volatility.
“Thursday’s news that the U.S. is preparing to resume nuclear talks with Iran, and Araqchi’s clarification that cooperation with the U.N. atomic agency has not been halted, considerably eases the threat of a fresh outbreak of hostilities,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analytics firm Vanda Insights.
Araqchi’s comments came shortly after Iran enacted legislation suspending some cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), raising international alarm. However, his reaffirmation of Iran’s adherence to the NPT appears to have tempered market concerns, at least in the short term.
Analysts expect a clearer price reaction early next week once the U.S. returns from the holiday and OPEC+ delivers its anticipated production announcement. According to Reuters, the oil producers’ group is expected to confirm a 411,000 barrel-per-day increase in output for August, as part of its ongoing strategy to reclaim global market share.
Meanwhile, uncertainty over U.S. trade policy returned as the end of a 90-day pause on higher tariff rates approaches. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that letters will be sent to trading partners starting Friday, informing them of new tariff rates ranging from 20% to 30%. The move marks a shift away from previous efforts to negotiate individual trade deals.
The Trump administration also imposed new sanctions on Thursday targeting a smuggling network accused of disguising Iranian oil as Iraqi, along with penalties on a Hezbollah-linked financial institution, according to the Treasury Department.
Still, there were signs of behind-the-scenes diplomacy. Saudi Arabian Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman met with President Trump at the White House to discuss de-escalation strategies with Iran. Trump also said he remains open to meeting with Iranian representatives “if necessary.”
Despite the near-term pullback, Barclays raised its Brent oil price forecasts, citing improved demand expectations. The bank lifted its 2025 projection by $6 to $72 per barrel and its 2026 forecast by $10 to $70 per barrel.
Market participants will be closely watching developments over the weekend, particularly Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, for further signals on supply dynamics and geopolitical risks heading into the second half of the year.
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