UBS’s global credit team raised its forecast for U.S. investment-grade tech bond issuance to $360 billion, up from $300 billion, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
As a result, its overall projection for U.S. investment-grade debt issuance this year has been lifted to $1.8 trillion from $1.725 trillion, with technology accounting for roughly one-fifth of the total.
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At the same time, UBS reduced its U.S. leveraged loan forecast to $360 billion from $450 billion. The bank noted that AI-related disruption risks appear most underpriced in leveraged loan and private credit markets, potentially leading to wider spreads and dampened refinancing activity.
Several megacap companies — including Meta Platforms, Amazon, and Alphabet Inc. — have recently announced substantial increases in capital spending. The surge in AI-related investments, particularly in data centers, is expected to drive higher debt issuance.
If recently announced capital expenditure plans materialize, UBS estimates that aggregate 2026 capex spending by hyperscalers could approach $770 billion — about 23% higher than previously expected. Public debt issuance by these firms could rise by an additional $40 billion to $50 billion, reaching as much as $240 billion.
UBS also anticipates greater non-U.S. dollar bond issuance from tech companies. Last week, Alphabet tapped the sterling and Swiss franc markets as part of a $31.51 billion global bond offering, signaling that U.S. tech firms may increasingly seek funding internationally to finance AI infrastructure expansion.
The bank noted that late 2025 saw major technology companies turn more aggressively to debt markets to support AI data center investments, driving a surge in issuance across multiple currency markets.
