UN warns of sharp decline in Ukraine’s population by 2100

The United Nations (UN) has projected that Ukraine’s population could decline to 15.3 million by 2100, a drop of more than 50%, News.Az reports citing foreign media.

According to the UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Ukraine’s population was recorded at 37.4 million in January this year and is expected to increase to 39.7 million by 2026. However, a significant decline is anticipated afterward, potentially reducing the population to just 15.3 million by the end of the century.

Oleksandr Hladun, deputy director of Ukraine’s Demography Institute, acknowledged the pessimistic nature of this forecast but emphasized that it should not be regarded as the sole credible projection for Ukraine’s demographic future.

Continuing, he explained that there were several categories of demographic forecast: optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic, each characterized by different parameters for fertility, mortality, and migration.

“For me, this is one of the most dismal prophecies for our state. It was most likely made with the war in mind, as well as the lack of population policy measures.

However, I would not advise to interpret the UN estimate on demography as the sole true verdict for Ukraine,” Hladun said.

He also explained that forecasts are categorized by the time period they cover, and are divided into short-term (2-5 years, most accurate), medium-term (10-15 years), and long-term (over 50 years), with accuracy decreasing as the time interval grows.

According to forecasts by the Institute of Demography, from mid-2023 Ukraine’s population may fall to about 30 million by 2037.

News.Az