Azerbaijan's victory and new challenges: What awaits the region after the conflict?

By Samir Muradov

In November 2020, Azerbaijan achieved a historic victory in the 44-day Patriotic War , forever altering the balance of power in the South Caucasus. The restoration of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and the effective collapse of Armenia's long-standing control over Karabakh were meant to be a crucial turning point for the region. President Ilham Aliyev repeatedly emphasized that despite all difficulties, Azerbaijan is ready to extend a hand of peace to Armenia and establish bilateral relations based on the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.

However, this gesture by Azerbaijan, aimed at achieving long-awaited peace and stability, has not received an adequate response from the Armenian leadership. Armenia continues to sabotage the implementation of the Trilateral Statement signed on November 10, 2020, which was supposed to end the years-long conflict.

A peace agreement or a path of provocations?

Since the signing of the agreement, Armenia has not only failed to take steps toward de-escalation but has instead pursued provocations and military escalation. A striking example was Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's congratulatory message on September 2, 2023, marking the so-called "Independence Day" of the unrecognized entity in Karabakh . This event clearly demonstrated that Yerevan refuses to acknowledge reality and continues to support separatist sentiments on Azerbaijani territories.

Moreover, on September 9, 2023, despite all agreements, illegal "elections" were held in the area under the responsibility of the Russian peacekeeping contingent, where a new "president" of the separatists was elected. These actions not only undermined the already fragile post-war settlement but also heightened tensions in the region.

Azerbaijan has repeatedly stated that such steps are unacceptable, yet Armenia has ignored all warnings. Instead of withdrawing its armed forces and separatist formations, the Armenian side continued to increase its presence in Karabakh by sending personnel, weapons, and equipment. Furthermore, Armenian units began constructing new fortifications and carrying out engineering work to strengthen their positions and mine the territory, a direct violation of the peace agreement.

September 19, 2023: Azerbaijan’s response

The escalation by Armenia reached its peak on September 19, 2023 , when a landmine explosion, set by Armenian sabotage groups, killed two civilians on the Ahmedbeyli–Fuzuli–Shusha highway. On the same day, an internal troops vehicle of the Azerbaijani Ministry of Internal Affairs was blown up, resulting in the deaths of four soldiers .

Azerbaijan could no longer tolerate such a situation. In response to these provocations, to prevent further terrorist acts and restore constitutional order in the Karabakh region, Azerbaijani armed forces launched a localized counter-terrorist operation.

By 1:00 p.m. the same day, the Azerbaijani army had blocked all supply routes for Armenian formations and launched massive strikes on their air defense and electronic warfare systems. As a result of precise strikes using high-precision weapons, 1,761 enemy targets were destroyed.

Coordinated actions by Azerbaijani army units allowed for the rapid capture of over 90 enemy positions. The operation covered 13 directions, including strategic areas such as Aghdere–Askeran, Khankendi–Khojavend, Sugovushan–Vang, Tazekend–Syrkhavend, and Khankendi–Khojaly. Azerbaijani forces advanced by 5 to 26 kilometers, gaining control over all key roads and supply routes in the region.

Features and results of the operation

The September 19 operation was conducted utilizing the experience of the 2020 Patriotic War. The Azerbaijani army, employing small mobile groups, successfully advanced through mountainous and forested terrain, catching the enemy by surprise. Despite unfavorable weather conditions and challenging geography, all objectives were accomplished with surgical precision.

By 10:00 p.m., most Armenian units were encircled, and their supply lines were cut off. As Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov noted, the operation lasted less than a day. During this time, Azerbaijani forces took control of 406 square kilometers, destroyed 8 tanks, 22 artillery systems, 3 anti-aircraft complexes, and 8 electronic warfare systems. They seized 1,731 pieces of military equipment, including vehicles and rocket launchers.

Azerbaijan achieved these successes with minimal troop involvement . Only select commando units, motorized rifle units, and special forces groups participated in the operation. Notably, the Azerbaijani army adhered strictly to international humanitarian law, avoiding civilian casualties.

As a result of these actions, Armenian forces capitulated and abandoned their positions, marking yet another significant victory for Azerbaijan, reaffirming its determination to defend its territorial integrity.

What awaits Armenia?

Armenia once again finds itself in a situation where its leadership is leading the country down a path of isolation and crisis. Despite the clear defeat in 2020, Armenia continues to cling to myths of "independence" for Karabakh and rejects all efforts at conflict resolution. Provocations and military actions only heighten regional tensions, bringing no benefit to the Armenian state.

The situation in the region remains tense. Azerbaijan stands firm in its positions and is prepared to take further steps if necessary. At the same time, it demonstrates readiness for peaceful dialogue and cooperation if Armenia decides to take constructive steps.

A chance for peace or further confrontation?

For Armenia, the question of what its future will look like remains open. The path of confrontation, repeatedly chosen by its leadership, has led the country to serious political and economic difficulties. Whether Armenia can learn from its mistakes and begin constructive dialogue with Azerbaijan is a question that will define its future for decades to come.

Azerbaijan, for its part, has made its position clear: peace is possible only based on the recognition of territorial integrity and respect for international law. As President Ilham Aliyev emphasizes, the "iron fist" remains in place, ready to respond to any provocation.

This conflict has long gone beyond local confrontations. It concerns the future of the entire South Caucasus and the stability of this important geopolitical region.

News.Az