Baku’s COP29 raised the bar – can Belém’s COP30 even compete?
Editor's note: Peter Marko Tase is an Honorary Professor of American Diplomatic History and U.S. Foreign Policy at the Azerbaijan University of Languages. He is also the founder of the Azerbaijan–United States Economic and Education Council. The views expressed in this article are his own and may not reflect the position of News.Az.
When the decision to host COP29 in Baku was made, some critics immediately claimed that the conference would be purely ceremonial and that real decisions would be taken in Belém, not Baku, just as they had not been taken in Abu Dhabi.
Even before the event began, a smear campaign was launched against Azerbaijan, continuing throughout the summit. Yet the outcome proved otherwise. COP29 produced serious, substantive decisions and achieved historical significance in terms of diversity, representation, and the scope of agreements reached.
But what is happening in Belém? The event scheduled for November 10–21 faces an empty agenda, world leaders are not participating, and no meaningful discussions are taking place beforehand. Under such circumstances, how can anyone compare COP30 in Belém with COP29 in Baku?
Source: Reuters
Brazil is currently struggling with the heavy trade tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and has responded by adopting protectionist measures against fellow South American nations such as Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, and Chile. Brazil’s approach within the MERCOSUR trade bloc has also become a source of disappointment. Paraguay’s agricultural sector, maquila assembly zones, and distribution centers have suffered significantly from Brazil’s restrictive policies, while Uruguayan goods have faced similar obstacles.
Against this backdrop, COP30 in Belém is facing a high risk of failure, with very slim chances of delivering meaningful outcomes. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration has performed poorly in maintaining law and order, curbing the influence of international organized crime, and implementing structural reforms.
Expectations for COP30 are diminishing rapidly due to Brazil’s reluctance to fight corruption or modernize MERCOSUR mechanisms.
Furthermore, Brazil has increasingly positioned itself as a gateway for Washington’s geopolitical competitors in South America. This shift has damaged the country’s international reputation, especially among democratic governments. To compensate for this weakening image, Brazil has intensified its information warfare efforts, attempting to prevent global media from exposing the failures of Lula’s governance and his outdated globalization ideology - an ideology that has damaged key industrial sectors in developing South American economies, including Paraguay, Uruguay, and Colombia.
In contrast, COP29 in Baku will be remembered as one of the most impactful global climate conferences in recent history. It addressed foundational areas of environmental policy, strengthened global cooperation, and set new precedents for pragmatic climate action. Baku’s organization of the event was exceptional: a perfectly planned urban environment, world-class architecture, advanced logistics, and a modern network of convention facilities capable of hosting thousands of international participants.
Source: APA
COP29 in Baku successfully advanced discussions on eight major issues:
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Climate finance
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Loss and damage
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Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and emissions reduction
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The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs)
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Unequal climate impacts and Locally Led Adaptation (LLA)
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Nature-based solutions (NbS) and the rights of Indigenous peoples
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Carbon markets
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The geopolitical context, global conflicts, and related tensions
Given the current political and economic environment in Brazil, these critical topics risk being overshadowed, or entirely neglected, during COP30 in Belém.
(If you possess specialized knowledge and wish to contribute, please reach out to us at opinions@news.az).
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