Can Baku help reconcile Moscow and Kyiv?

By Tural Heybatov

Speaking on September 6 at the international forum in Cernobbio, Italy, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev stated that Baku is actively working to build bridges between various players on the world stage. "Although Azerbaijan is not a major player in international affairs, I believe we can build bridges between the Global South and the Global North," he said.

This statement was made in the context of cooperation to prevent the global climate catastrophe. In November, the world will gather in Baku to discuss how to prevent this catastrophe, and Baku is the perfect place for such discussions. Azerbaijan is equally distant from all centers of power, remains neutral, and maintains stable, balanced relationships with all poles. It has no obligations to anyone, avoids isolating itself, and doesn’t impose its will on others. Today, it's hard to find another platform like this, not only for peacefully resolving environmental issues, around which tensions and, at times, not entirely clean processes are ongoing.

We should recall that Baku has repeatedly hosted meetings between NATO and the Russian General Staff. The last time Russian Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Tod Wolters held talks in Baku was in February 2020. Both sides had much to discuss, but a neutral, friendly platform was needed for these negotiations, and Azerbaijan was chosen.

Baku’s diplomatic finesse also stands out, as it successfully reconciled Putin and Erdoğan following the incident with the Russian bomber. In November 2015, a Turkish aircraft shot down a Russian plane near the border, leading to a sharp cooling of relations and severe tensions. Ilham Aliyev leveraged his good relations with both leaders to help resolve the disagreements. Incidentally, Baku also successfully mediated between Ankara and Tel Aviv after the infamous 2010 "Mavi Marmara" incident off the coast of Gaza.

Many countries claim to be neutral, but true neutrality, free from external influence, is challenging and achieved by few. Azerbaijan is not a member of international integration organizations like NATO or CSTO and has no plans to join the EU or the EAEU. As previously mentioned, it maintains equal and mutually beneficial relationships with all power centers. Therefore, the parties involved in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, as well as those trying to resolve it, should pay close attention to the words of Ilham Aliyev, spoken at the same forum in Cernobbio . He said:

"First of all, considering that together with Russia and Ukraine, we were part of the USSR for 70 years, we maintain multifaceted ties on both personal and political levels. Today, we consider our relations with Russia and Ukraine to be very good. We firmly support the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine and all countries. However, at the same time, we were not and will not be part of the anti-Russian sanctions campaign. I believe we can play a role, given the pragmatism of our relationships. We have never initiated this, but I know many others are eager to participate. If our participation is needed, we are ready."

This statement is very significant. Azerbaijan, more than any other country, understands Ukraine's current plight and the tragedy its people are enduring. It supports Ukraine’s efforts to restore its territorial integrity and firmly stands by this. At the same time, Azerbaijan has maintained good relations with Moscow, which, thanks to Baku’s delicate diplomacy, have not been harmed despite numerous potential causes for friction. Russia has given Azerbaijan enough reasons for negative sentiments, but big politics is not built on emotions. The result of Baku’s deft handling of this situation was the voluntary, incident-free withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Karabakh — something no one expected.

Ilham Aliyev believes Azerbaijan can achieve positive results in resolving the complex Russian-Ukrainian conflict. In Italy, he stated that Azerbaijan, actively cooperating with many European countries, including ten EU members, and having chaired the Non-Aligned Movement for four years, could become the country capable of producing meaningful outcomes.

Currently, world powers are competing with each other to become the peacemakers in this issue. However, so far, all attempts have failed, being rejected by one side or the other. The reason is that none of these mediators are neutral. Each of them has their own interests and tries to tailor the negotiation package to those interests. Unfortunately, the war in Ukraine has become a platform for world powers to solve their own issues, and how sincere they are in their peace efforts is difficult to gauge.

In contrast, Baku has no personal stake in the matter. Azerbaijan knows from its own experience how harmful it is to drag out negotiations for the sake of negotiations alone and how detrimental this can be for prospects of peace. Therefore, there is little doubt that if Baku steps into the process, it could help break the deadlock.

Returning to COP29, it’s worth noting that the climate conference in Baku is poised to become a platform for achieving real agreements — even between seemingly irreconcilable competitors. It is already known that the US and China plan to reach an agreement on methane emissions in Baku. This is a serious issue, and both sides have expressed their intention to resolve it with Azerbaijan’s mediation.

Recently, in Beijing, the second meeting of the US-China working group on enhancing climate action in the 2020s took place , with the main goal being to continue discussions on resolving the climate crisis. Both powers confirmed their readiness to jointly hold a methane summit at COP29 in Baku, along with addressing other non-CO2 greenhouse gases, in cooperation with Azerbaijan. There is a high likelihood that an agreement will be reached. Many other issues and disputes between countries, including over who bears the most responsibility for climate change, could also be addressed at COP29. Baku will mediate between the disputants and help resolve issues in a way that benefits all parties involved. As Ilham Aliyev said, Baku will build bridges between the Global South and the Global North.

Building bridges is something Azerbaijan does better than anyone else.

News.Az