Control of Kurchatov NPP: Ukraine shifts tactics in conflict with Russia
Editor’s note: Iqor Yushkov is leading analyst of the National Energy Security Fund, expert of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
Recent events involving the advance of Ukrainian troops into Russian territory, particularly in the Kursk region, call for a reassessment of current strategies and potential negotiations, as well as their possible consequences. These actions by Ukraine appear to be aimed at creating more favorable conditions for future negotiations. At a time when Europe, the United States, Ukraine, and Russia are actively discussing the need for peace talks, Ukraine has found itself in a disadvantageous position, with its front-line positions gradually weakening. Russia has continued its advance in the Donetsk region, steadily capturing new territories. In this situation, Ukraine needs significant leverage to enter the negotiation process from a stronger position, and the current offensive in the Kursk region can be seen as an attempt to create such favorable conditions.It is no coincidence that Ukrainian forces are trying to establish a foothold in these territories, bringing in engineering equipment and reinforcing their presence, rather than limiting themselves to short-term raids with subsequent withdrawal. This suggests that Ukraine views these territories as strategically important, with the potential to exert pressure on Russia, particularly in the context of future negotiations.
One of the key targets that may be of interest to Ukrainian forces is the Sudzha gas metering station (GMS), through which a major gas pipeline to Europe runs. The southern route of this pipeline—Sakharovka—is currently shut down because part of it runs through the territory of the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR). Ukraine has previously stated that the pipeline would not be used until it regains control over this territory. For three years, Gazprom has been applying for gas transit through Sakharovka, but the Ukrainian side has consistently denied these requests.
However, GMS Sudzha might have a different significance for Ukraine. It is important to understand that capturing Sudzha is likely not intended simply to stop gas transit. Ukraine could stop the transit at any moment by simply closing the valve, as it did in Sakharovka. However, such a decision could lead to pressure from European politicians, who might accuse Ukraine of worsening Europe's economic situation. In the case of damage to GMS Sudzha, the cessation of transit could be justified on technical grounds, making it a less politically charged move in terms of responsibility to European partners.
There is also a theory that Ukraine might use the capture of Sudzha and the destruction of its equipment as a justification for halting transit, thereby avoiding pressure from Europe. However, even in this scenario, Russia could quickly restore the equipment at GMS Sudzha, and this would likely not seriously impact gas transit in the long term. Additionally, repairing the damaged section of the pipeline could take anywhere from a few days to several weeks, and even if it took several months, Ukraine would eventually return to the same situation, where Russia restores the pipeline, and Kyiv again refuses transit. Ultimately, the decision would still lie with Ukraine, which could negatively impact Europe's economic situation, something that is not advantageous for Kyiv in terms of maintaining political support from the West.
Thus, Ukraine's primary goal is likely not simply to capture territory but to establish control over strategically important assets that can then be used in negotiations. In this context, a more significant asset than GMS Sudzha is the Kurchatov Nuclear Power Plant, located in the Kursk region. Ukraine is likely aiming to establish control over this nuclear power plant with the intention of later exchanging it for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which is currently under Russian control. The Zaporizhzhia NPP, the largest in Europe with six reactors, is critically important for Ukraine, especially given the current state of its energy infrastructure.
Ukraine's energy infrastructure has been severely damaged during the conflict, and control over major facilities like the Zaporizhzhia NPP could be key to restoring stability to the country's energy system. In the long-term perspective, constructing a new facility with the energy generation capacity of the Zaporizhzhia NPP would be extremely challenging and costly for Ukraine. Therefore, reclaiming it would be an extremely valuable achievement for Kyiv.
The current offensive in the Kursk region may be aimed at achieving this goal—establishing control over the Kurchatov Nuclear Power Plant for a subsequent exchange with Zaporizhzhia. In this light, the capture of Sudzha and other facilities in the region could be seen as auxiliary steps to strengthen Ukraine's position in negotiations, rather than as standalone objectives.
These events also have serious implications for Europe, as the risks associated with a possible cessation of gas transit have already led to an increase in energy prices. European countries such as Austria and Slovakia, which receive gas through Ukrainian pipelines, may face the need to find new sources of gas, which would involve additional costs for transportation and the purchase of liquefied natural gas (LNG). This, in turn, could lead to further increases in gas prices, especially given competition with Asian markets.
For Russia, the cessation of transit through Ukraine would mean the loss of significant volumes of gas—15 billion cubic meters—that cannot be redirected to other markets, leading to a need to reduce production and a decrease in Russian budget revenues from taxes and export duties. In this context, any actions aimed at capturing and controlling strategic assets become even more significant for all sides of the conflict, as they can influence long-term economic and political strategies in the region.
In conclusion, the current events in the Kursk region appear to be part of a complex and multi-layered strategy aimed at creating favorable conditions for future negotiations and shifting the balance of power in the ongoing conflict.
(If you possess specialized knowledge and wish to contribute, please reach out to us at opinions@news.az).
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