Could the U.S. back Nord Stream 2? Assessing the prospects amid sanctions
By Maria Zhigadlo
According to a recent report by Financial Times, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline might still have a chance of being launched with the backing of American investors. However, this raises a critical question: Would the United States actually support the activation of Nord Stream 2, considering the risks of deepening Europe’s dependence on Russian gas? Moreover, is there a realistic possibility that the U.S. could lift some of the sanctions imposed on Russia’s oil and gas sector? News.Az discussed these and other pressing questions with Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
© Sputnik / Vladimir Trefilov /
Misinterpretations in Western media
Yushkov argues that Western media might not be presenting the situation accurately. Reports often imply that it was the U.S. that initiated talks about Nord Stream 2 or its potential launch. However, Yushkov believes that this narrative is misleading. The actual initiative likely came from Nord Stream 2's operating company, which might have been testing the waters to gauge American and European reactions to the idea of launching the pipeline.
The emergence of this discussion seems to have been misinterpreted by the media. While it’s plausible that the U.S. might have an interest in these talks, their interest would be from a very different angle. During the Trump administration, for instance, the pipeline could have been used as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Moscow—an opportunity to assess how much leverage it held over Russia. However, strategically, the U.S. stands to lose if Nord Stream 2 becomes operational.
A strategic threat to U.S. LNG interests
From a strategic perspective, Nord Stream 2 is highly disadvantageous for Washington. The U.S. has been aggressively pushing its liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports into the European market, seeking to replace Russian supplies. Allowing additional volumes of Russian gas to flow into Europe would directly compete with American LNG, undermining the U.S. strategy to dominate this market.
Moreover, the U.S. plans to double its LNG exports over the next three years, despite already being the largest global exporter. With so many new LNG projects on the horizon, American companies need assured market access in Europe. Supporting Nord Stream 2 would be tantamount to aiding a major competitor—a scenario Washington is likely to resist at all costs.
Sanctions and the U.S. stance on Nord Stream 2
Any path to launching Nord Stream 2 would almost certainly require lifting U.S. sanctions, which have effectively paralyzed the project. The U.S. imposed blocking sanctions on the operator of Nord Stream 2 and its CEO, Matthias Warnig, prohibiting any financial dealings with the company. American investors or companies attempting to purchase assets tied to Nord Stream 2 would risk having their own assets seized.
There have been attempts by certain American businessmen to secure exemptions from these sanctions, particularly those eyeing the possibility of buying Nord Stream 2 assets at a discount and reselling them later for a profit. Such maneuvers suggest that some business figures in the U.S. are betting on a potential thaw in U.S.-Russia relations, possibly linked to an eventual resolution of the Ukraine conflict.
However, Yushkov doubts that Washington would consider lifting sanctions on the oil and gas sector anytime soon. Even if certain financial sanctions were to be rolled back—perhaps to preserve the dominance of the U.S. dollar in international trade—sanctions targeting the Russian energy sector would likely remain in place for the foreseeable future.
Commercial interests vs. strategic concerns
While some American investors might find the idea of acquiring Nord Stream 2 assets appealing, U.S. policymakers are unlikely to share this enthusiasm. The operational capacity of the surviving Nord Stream 2 pipeline is about 27.5 billion cubic meters per year—potentially rising to 30 billion cubic meters if operated at full tilt. This is equivalent to the output of two to three medium-sized U.S. LNG export terminals. Allowing this gas to flow would not only intensify competition but could also lead to lower gas prices in Europe, directly impacting American LNG exports.
For these reasons, the U.S. government’s interest in launching Nord Stream 2 appears minimal. Even if American investors were to acquire stakes in the project, the broader strategic goal of displacing Russian gas in Europe would remain unchanged.
A grim outlook for Nord Stream 2
In Yushkov’s view, the initiative to revive Nord Stream 2 is likely driven by Russian interests rather than American ones. Moscow sees the pipeline as a way to restore its foothold in Europe’s gas market and shift the region’s energy balance. However, even if Gazprom were to sell half of Nord Stream 2 to American investors, this would not align with Washington’s broader strategy of promoting U.S. LNG.
For now, the outlook for Nord Stream 2 remains bleak. Any potential thaw in U.S.-Russia relations would likely see financial sanctions eased first, with the oil and gas sector remaining a low priority for relief. As Yushkov concludes, the chances of Washington supporting Nord Stream 2 are slim to none—at least for the foreseeable future.
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