INTERVIEW: Armenia’s CSTO suspension weakens Russia in South Caucasus and Central Asia
In an interview with News.Az , renowned Kyrgyz political scientist and regional security expert Mars Sariyev provides a detailed analysis of Armenia's stance toward the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and its potential implications for regional stability.
The discussion was prompted by recent statements from Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan , who claimed that the CSTO not only fails to fulfill its security obligations to Armenia but also poses a threat to the country's sovereignty and existence. Pashinyan further emphasized that Armenia's relationship with the CSTO is nearing a "point of no return." During the interview, Mars Sariyev shared his thoughts on the matter, highlighted key aspects of Armenia's policy, and commented on possible scenarios for future developments.
- What reasons led Nikol Pashinyan to view the CSTO as a threat to Armenia's sovereignty?
- I don't believe the CSTO directly threatens Armenia's sovereignty. In my view, Pashinyan is deliberately escalating this issue to weaken the organization and create divisions among its members, especially between Russia and the Turkic states.
- How do you evaluate Armenia's policy of simultaneously strengthening its ties with the West while maintaining situational participation in the CSTO?
- Armenia is playing a double game. Notice that the country hasn't left the CSTO but merely suspended its participation. In this sense, its actions are situational and do not reflect a final position. Armenia is enhancing its ties with the West, particularly with France. American military personnel are already present on its territory, and joint exercises are being conducted. Armenia is receiving arms from France and India, as well as support from Iran, which helps strengthen its position in potential negotiations with Azerbaijan. Thus, Armenia wavers between a pro-Western orientation and its alliance with the CSTO.
- How could Armenia's suspension of its CSTO membership affect the military-political situation in the region?
- Armenia's suspension from the CSTO will weaken Russia's position in the South Caucasus and diminish its status in Central Asia. It is already evident that Central Asian states have started refusing to participate in CSTO military exercises following the attack on the Kursk region of Ukraine. This indicates Russia's declining influence in the region and the growing role of the Turkic Union. Recent military exercises in Kazakhstan involving Azerbaijan and other Turkic republics confirm this trend.
- What key events have catalyzed the deterioration of Armenia's relations with the CSTO?
- The key turning point was the escalation of the Karabakh conflict. While Armenia, as a CSTO member, could have expected support from Russia, Karabakh is not recognized as part of Armenia, and therefore it does not fall under CSTO protection. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, both CSTO members, would not have supported a military operation in Karabakh, which also affected Russia's position in the region. A similar situation occurred during the conflict in the Kursk region: despite the CSTO charter, the member states did not take steps to defend Russia. All of this is leading to a decline in the CSTO's status, despite the military exercises being conducted, including recent maneuvers in Kyrgyzstan and planned exercises in Central Asia.
Similar news
