Trump's return to the White House: How his victory will shape U.S. foreign policy

The U.S. presidential election is underway, with Americans casting their votes to decide the next president and vice president.

The Republican ticket of former President Donald Trump and Ohio Senator James David Vance faces off against the Democratic team of Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Harris became the Democratic nominee after incumbent Joe Biden chose not to run for re-election.

Both candidates have run vigorous campaigns in recent months, often exchanging sharp remarks. Trump, 78, has accused Harris of lacking experience and labeled her policies as "radical left," claiming her election would lead the country toward socialism. Harris, 60, has countered by describing Trump as a threat to democracy, accusing him of undermining public confidence in the electoral system.

Although recent polls indicate a slight edge for Harris, Trump claims a "97 percent chance" of winning. If re-elected, will he maintain his previous policy positions? How might his administration shape U.S. policy in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran? Will he continue the strong support for Israel and uphold a hardline stance against Iran? And will he sustain the level of assistance to Ukraine seen during Biden’s administration?

During his previous term, Trump adopted a tough approach in the Middle East, especially regarding Iran, and made Israel's security a priority. His stance resulted in significant diplomatic achievements, such as the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations.

In an exclusive interview for News.Az Matin Mammadli, a leading advisor at the Baku-based Center of Analysis of International Relations , remarked that "judging by the statements and campaign positions of Republican candidate Donald Trump, it seems likely that he would largely continue the foreign policy approach he pursued during his first term. His approach covers distinct stances on key issues, including the Russia-Ukraine war, relations with Iran, and dynamics with China."

Comparing the platforms of both the Republican and Democratic candidates, Mammadli pointed out significant differences in their foreign policy perspectives. "If Trump is re-elected, it’s likely he would resume his previous foreign policy approach. Trump is not just a politician; he represents a movement and a worldview that resonates with a substantial portion of the American public. Many in the U.S. support his vision of prioritizing domestic issues over foreign interventions."

According to Mammadli, Trump’s influence within the Republican Party is considerable, and his policies have garnered substantial support both within the party and among the public. This support base includes those who believe the U.S. should avoid entangling itself in global conflicts and focus on internal development. With this backing, Mammadli believes Trump would likely continue the foreign policy approach of his first term if re-elected.

On U.S. support for Ukraine, Mammadli anticipates that Trump would not match the level of assistance provided under Biden. Instead, he predicts Trump would take a more direct approach to conflict resolution, applying diplomatic pressure to both Russia and Ukraine to reach a settlement. "If Trump returns to office," Mammadli remarked, "he would likely reduce the military, political, and diplomatic support for Ukraine that is currently in place."

As for the Middle East and Iran, Mammadli expects a continuation of Trump’s previous policies, particularly his strong support for Israel. "During his first term, Trump prioritized Israel’s security, even recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. This focus on Israel would almost certainly persist in a second term."

News.Az